"Turkey’s Expanding Security Role in the Horn of Africa" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Turkey’s expanding role in the Horn of Africa is no longer limited to diplomacy or development assistance. It has become a security actor in the region’s civil wars. The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Israel are also taking more active positions in these conflicts.
While foreign involvement in African civil wars is longstanding, Turkey’s move from development assistance to security engagement in the Horn of Africa is a recent shift. In this endeavor, Ankara pursues its own priorities, even when it aligns tactically with other regional powers.
"Iran derails neighbors’ de-escalation efforts" by Dr. Sinem Cengiz, Arab News
Turkish officials believe that the Iranian regime is far from collapse and retains the capacity to sustain the war for months, which is a nightmare scenario that Ankara wants to avoid. The concerns over such a scenario forces Turkiye’s continued push for de-escalation — but Turkiye’s ability to act as an intermediary is constrained by structural challenges within Iran itself. It is increasingly unclear which actors within the Iranian system hold authority, particularly over missile attacks. This uncertainty complicates diplomatic efforts, as regional actors struggle to identify their counterparts in Iran.
"Turkey’s Cabinet Reshuffle Sets the Stage for Its Next President" by Sinan Ciddi, and William Doran, The National Interest
This latest reshuffle, however, carries far greater significance: it appears to reflect Erdogan’s deliberate effort to facilitate a seamless transfer of power to his son, Bilal Erdogan. The professional histories and loyalties of the newly appointed ministers suggest they were selected not for technocratic competence, but for their proven willingness to weaponize state institutions against political challengers—most notably the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP).
By consolidating control over the justice and interior ministries, Erdogan is tightening his grip over the mechanisms that oversee elections, law enforcement, and judicial proceedings. In doing so, he is not merely governing, but shaping the conditions under which his successor will be determined. The objective of these machinations is clear: weaken the opposition, eliminate meaningful electoral independence, and ensure that Bilal Erdogan’s eventual ascent to the presidency occurs without resistance or democratic interruption.
Ocalan Reportedly Urges Demirtas to Lead New Party
Nefes newspaper has claimed that PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan sent a letter to Selahattin Demirtas, the former co-chair of the HDP, who is currently imprisoned in Edirne Prison.
According to the report, Ocalan urged Demirtas to prepare for a return to politics and asked him to take an active role in the newly formed party. Ocalan reportedly said the new party should have a single leader and that he considered Demirtas the right person for the position.
The report suggested that the letter indicates no rift between Ocalan and Demirtas and that Ocalan is actively seeking to bring Demirtas back into a prominent political role.
Ozel Accuses Justice Minister Gurlek of Unexplained Wealth
Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Ozgur Ozel said on March 17 that Justice Minister Akin Gurlek was involved in real estate transactions worth 452 million Turkish lira ($10.2 million), alleging that the wealth could not be explained by a public official’s salary.
Ozel said Gurlek’s current holdings and previously sold properties included 11 apartments and one parcel of land worth 325.5 million lira, along with four apartments allegedly sold for 126.5 million lira.
Gurlek denied the allegations, saying he owns only four properties and that the documents presented by Ozel do not match the actual land registry records. He said both he and his wife, who is also a judge, regularly submit asset declarations to the relevant authorities. He also said he would take legal action, including filing a civil claim for reputational damages.
Turkey’s main opposition party has since filed a criminal complaint against Gurlek. The CHP says investigators should examine the full record of property purchases and sales, not only the assets currently registered in his name.
Istanbul Rally Marks One Year Since Imamoglu’s Arrest
Thousands of Turks gathered in central Istanbul on March 18 to back jailed Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu at an opposition rally marking one year since authorities arrested President Tayyip Erdogan’s main rival on corruption charges.
Police stepped up security around Istanbul City Hall, known in Turkish as Sarachane. Supporters waved red party banners and Turkish flags as they filled the area for the rally organized by Imamoglu’s party, the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP). The crowd chanted, “Rights, law, justice,” while Imamoglu’s wife addressed supporters.
Several European political figures and institutions sent messages of support on the anniversary, including Nacho Sanchez Amor, the European Parliament’s rapporteur on Turkey. Amor said the European Union should not remain silent and argued that Imamoglu should not be in jail.
Kusadasi Mayor Arrested in Bribery and Extortion Probe
A Turkish court arrested the mayor of the western resort town of Kusadasi in Aydin province and four others on bribery and extortion charges as part of an investigation led by the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office. Police detained the suspects during operations on March 13.
Mayor Omer Gunel of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) was arrested on March 16 along with the municipal building control director, a municipal architect and urban planner, the former president of Kusadasispor, and a businessman.
EU Proposes SEPA Access to Deepen Turkey Ties
The European Union proposed last month that Turkey join a cost-cutting payments system, aiming to deepen integration with the membership candidate and lower the cost of sending money abroad, the EU envoy to Ankara told Reuters.
Jurgis Vilcinskas, the bloc’s charge d’affaires in Turkey, said European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos raised the proposal with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan during their meeting in Ankara last month. Vilcinskas said access to SEPA could deliver significant annual savings for Turkish businesses, consumers and the diaspora by making cross-border euro transfers as fast and as affordable as domestic payments.
He added that Turkey would need to align with the EU’s Payment Services Directive, including stricter anti-money laundering measures and stronger data protection rules. Vilcinskas also said the European Commission was ready to support Turkey in any effort to join SEPA.
Fitch Warns Prolonged Iran War Could Raise Risks for Turkey
Fitch Ratings said on March 16 that Turkey and its banking sector could absorb the economic fallout from the Iran war if the disruption remains brief, but warned that a longer conflict or broader regional instability could pose more serious risks to the country’s sovereign rating and financial system.
The agency stated that the main risks would stay contained under its baseline scenario, which assumes that the conflict and any closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be short-lived. Fitch said Turkey’s foreign exchange reserve buffers and the authorities’ commitment to tight monetary and fiscal policy would help limit the impact.
Fitch added that a prolonged period of high oil prices would likely drive inflation higher and widen Turkey’s current account deficit. It said those risks would increase further if political leaders interfered more in economic management and loosened policy settings.
TEPAV Warns Hormuz Disruption Could Hit Turkish Industry and Inflation
A disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could have broad economic consequences for Turkey, affecting industrial inputs, fertilizers, logistics costs, and inflation, according to a report by the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV).
The report stated that Turkey imports aluminium, plastics, and petrochemical raw materials worth nearly $3 billion annually from Gulf producers, much of which is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. It also noted that Turkey imports between $700 million and $900 million worth of monoethylene glycol (MEG) each year, with 35% to 40% supplied by Gulf countries, exposing the textile, garment, and packaging industries to higher costs in the event of supply disruptions.
TEPAV said Gulf countries also account for 15% to 25% of Turkey’s nitrogen fertilizer imports, warning that rising fertilizer and energy costs could increase production costs for strategic crops such as wheat, corn, and sunflower.
Sectors including textiles, automotive components, machinery, and white goods could also face longer delivery times and higher freight costs, complicating supply chain planning, the report added.
The report further estimated that a $10 increase in oil prices could add $4.5-$5 billion to Turkey’s current account deficit, while oil prices in the $90–$100 range could put further pressure on both budget balances and inflation.
Turkish Agricultural Producer Prices Rise in February
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) announced the Agricultural Producer Price Index (Agricultural PPI) for February on March 16, showing a 0.21 percent increase from the previous month and a 40.1 percent increase from the same month last year.
Among subgroups, pome fruits and stone fruits recorded the highest annual increase at 110.06 percent, while citrus fruits posted the highest monthly rise at 24.52 percent.
Journalist Ismail Ari Arrested Over “Misleading Information” Charge
BirGun reporter Ismail Ari was detained on the evening of March 21 in the Turhal district of Tokat, where he had traveled to visit his family for the holiday, as part of an investigation launched by the Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office. Ari is known for reporting on corruption and irregularities in public institutions.
Authorities charged him with “publicly disseminating misleading information” and transferred him to Ankara on the morning of March 22. Police completed his questioning later that evening.
Officials took Ari to the courthouse around 8 p.m. The prosecutor referred him to the magistrate’s court, requesting his arrest without taking his statement, and the court ordered his arrest late that night.
Turkey Arrests 47 in Operations Targeting Gulen Movement
Turkey’s Interior Ministry said 47 of 77 people detained in operations targeting the Gulen movement across 27 provinces have been arrested.
In a statement posted on the ministry’s social media account on March 20, authorities said security forces carried out raids on numerous homes in 27 provinces over suspected links to the movement.
Of the 70 suspects brought before a court, judges ordered the arrest of 47 and placed 23 under judicial supervision.
Prisons Hold More Than 108,000 Inmates Above Capacity
Turkey’s prisons are operating far beyond capacity, according to data from the Civil Society Association in the Penal System (CISST) for March 2026. The group said 403 prisons are holding 412,991 inmates despite a total capacity of 304,956.
The figures show that prisons exceed capacity by 35.43 percent, with 108,035 inmates held above the official limit. CISST said the number of prisoners beyond capacity rose by 5.60 percent in just one month.
According to CISST, prisons currently hold 19,728 women, 4,524 children between the ages of 12 and 18, and 891 children aged 0 to 6 living with their mothers. The group also reported that 476 disabled inmates and 6,572 prisoners over the age of 65 are being held in prisons.
ECtHR Issues Multiple Rulings Against Turkey Over Rights Violations
The European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) issued several rulings on March 17, finding that Turkey violated the rights of citizens in cases ranging from post-coup detentions to police misconduct and freedom of expression.
In two major judgments, the court ruled that Turkey violated the rights of 93 individuals accused of links to the Gulen movement who were arrested and held in pretrial detention following the 2016 coup attempt.
In Yaman and Others v. Turkey, the court found that the detention of 77 applicants lacked sufficient evidence to establish reasonable suspicion of a criminal offence. In Cakar and Others v. Turkey, involving 16 applicants, the court ruled that Turkish authorities failed to provide adequate justification for repeatedly extending pretrial detentions. The court ordered Turkey to pay between 3,000 and 5,000 euros to most applicants for damages and legal costs.
The ECtHR also ruled that authorities violated the prohibition of torture and ill-treatment in the case of Ceyda Sungur, who was sprayed with pepper gas at close range by police during the 2013 Gezi Park protests. The court ordered Turkey to pay Sungur 11,900 euros in damages and costs.
In another decision, the court found that Turkey violated a teacher's right of access to a court. The teacher, who was dismissed from public service and later reinstated, had her appeal for back pay rejected on the grounds that a time limit had expired. The court awarded her 1,500 euros in damages.
Finally, the ECtHR ruled that a five-day solitary confinement sentence imposed on a prisoner for comments made during a private phone call with his wife violated his freedom of expression. The court called the punishment disproportionate, noting the remarks were private and posed no security threat. Turkey must pay the applicant 1,500 euros for moral damages and legal fees.
New Freedom House Report Says Rights in Turkey Sharply Declined in 20 Years
Turkey has recorded one of the steepest declines in freedoms worldwide over the past two decades and received the lowest possible score for the right to due process, according to Freedom House’s Freedom in the World 2026 report, published on March 19.
The report said Turkey’s overall score has dropped by 33 points since 2005, making it the only European country classified as “Not Free.”
Freedom House said the imprisonment of political opponents, independent journalists, and activists has become routine in Turkey. It also said the country received the worst possible score for the right to due process.
The report further raised concerns about the treatment of migrants and refugees, noting that Turkish authorities have phased out protections previously granted to around 2.4 million registered Syrian refugees.
Turkey Joins Riyadh Statement Condemning Iran Attacks
Turkey joined 11 other Arab and Muslim countries in signing a statement in Riyadh on March 18 that condemned Iran’s missile and drone attacks on regional states but made no mention of US or Israeli strikes on Iran.
The statement followed a consultative meeting of foreign ministers in the Saudi capital and was signed by countries including Qatar, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. It condemned what it described as deliberate Iranian attacks on Gulf Cooperation Council member states, as well as Jordan, Azerbaijan, and Turkey, and said the strikes hit residential areas and civilian infrastructure.
The signatories called on Iran to immediately stop its attacks and urged Tehran not to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz or maritime security in the Bab al-Mandab.
The statement mentioned Israel only in a separate section on Lebanon. It did not refer to Israeli strikes on Iran or to the role of the United States in the conflict.
Turkey Deploys Additional Patriot System to Incirlik Base
Turkish Defense Ministry announced on March 18 the deployment of an additional Patriot air defense system to Incirlik Air Base in Adana, citing missile activity in the region and potential threats to Turkish airspace.
The ministry said the new system, commissioned by Allied Air Command in Ramstein, Germany, would be stationed alongside an existing Spanish Patriot system already deployed in Adana. The move follows an earlier Patriot deployment in Malatya.
Turkey Denies Claim of US Request to Use Bases
Turkish analyst Gonul Tol, founding director of the Turkey program at the Washington-based Middle East Institute (MEI), said in a post on X on March 17 that a Pentagon official had told her that Washington sought access to Turkish bases to station aerial refueling aircraft and keep them away from the immediate conflict zone.
Turkish Foreign Ministry sources denied the claim, saying no such request had been made and no discussions were underway with any country regarding parliamentary authorization for the use of Turkish bases. “The allegation is not true. There have been no talks with any country on such a motion. These are unserious claims,” the sources said.
Seven Killed in Helicopter Crash in Qatar Waters
Seven people were killed in a helicopter crash in Qatar’s territorial waters on March 22, according to statements from Qatari and Turkish authorities.
The defense ministries of Qatar and Turkey said the helicopter went down due to a technical malfunction. Qatar’s ministry said the aircraft crashed while carrying out routine duty.
Turkish defense ministry said the victims included four Qatari Armed Forces personnel, one member of the Turkish Armed Forces, and two technicians affiliated with ASELSAN. The ministry added that Qatari authorities would determine the exact cause of the crash through an investigation.
Iraq Resumes Kirkuk Oil Exports to Turkey’s Ceyhan Port
Crude exports from Iraq’s Kirkuk fields to Turkey’s Ceyhan port have resumed through the pipeline after Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) agreed on March 17 to restart the flow, Iraq’s North Oil Company said.
The KRG confirmed the agreement and said the two sides would form a joint committee to prepare for the resumption of oil exports. It added that the revenue would return to the federal treasury.
KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani said in a post on X that talks with Baghdad would continue to remove restrictions on imports and trade to the region urgently and to provide the guarantees needed for oil and gas companies to resume production in a safe environment.
Basim Mohammed, Iraq’s deputy oil minister for upstream affairs, said in a televised statement that Iraq has started pumping crude from Kirkuk to Ceyhan at an initial rate of 170,000 barrels per day and plans to gradually increase the volume to 250,000 barrels per day.
Istanbul Court Rejects Europol Messages as Evidence
The 18th Istanbul High Criminal Court ruled that encrypted phone messages decrypted by Europol could not be treated as evidence and acquitted the defendants accused in connection with seven alleged drug shipments.
Authorities detained the defendants, including Recep O. and his associates, on June 8, 2024, during Operation Kuyu 4. The group communicated through the encrypted messaging application Sky ECC, and Europol later shared the decrypted messages with Turkey’s General Directorate of Security.
The court rejected the messages as evidence. It said authorities must seize the drugs in question and confirm them through scientific examination for the alleged crime to be established. The court also ruled that it could not issue a verdict based only on messages from an application. The ruling is expected to influence similar cases.
Turkish Earthquake Victims in Canada Face Return as Permits Expire
Approximately 9,000 Turkish citizens who traveled to Canada after the 2023 earthquakes now face the prospect of deportation or returning home as temporary immigration measures introduced by Ottawa have expired.
After the earthquakes, Canada prioritized immigration applications from Turkish and Syrian nationals and allowed temporary residents from affected countries to extend their status, work, or study.
However, Canada did not renew the temporary residence permits granted to Turkish earthquake victims in 2026. As a result, those permits are set to expire, and many affected individuals are expected to return to Turkey.
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