"No, Turkey Is Not the New Iran" by Bobby Ghosh, Foreign Policy
“Difficult ally” and “existential enemy” are not synonyms. Chatham House’s Yossi Mekelberg put it bluntly: Turkey is “so much noise” relative to Iran. The real risk, he warned, is that treating rhetorical friction as strategic threat could cause Israel to “mak[e] it a genuine opponent” through the sheer force of its own threat inflation.
The real danger in the coming months is not that Turkey will replicate Iran’s model of proxy warfare and nuclear brinkmanship. It has no Hezbollah, no Quds Force, no ideology demanding it export revolution at gunpoint. The real danger is that the rhetoric becomes self-fulfilling. Meliha Altunisik, a Turkish international politics expert, has warned that “viewing Turkey as the ‘new Iran’ risks strategic miscalculation. It may accelerate confrontation rather than contain it.” A beleaguered leader facing economic pressure and an emboldened opposition has every incentive to cast himself as the champion of the Muslim world against a hostile West.
"How Iran war may impact Turkiye-South Caucasus ties" by Dr. Sinem Cengiz, Arab News
Given these achievements in Armenia’s relations with both Turkiye and Azerbaijan, Ankara will try to avoid these dual peace processes being disrupted by the ongoing war. Ankara does not want to see Baku, Yerevan or itself drawn into the conflict. Historically, Azerbaijan has leaned closer to Israel and Armenia than to Iran, but recent statements indicate a strong desire to remain uninvolved in the war.
Therefore, it is possible that we may see closer coordination among Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkiye in response to the ongoing war. For the first time in their history, neither Turkiye and Armenia nor Armenia and Azerbaijan view each other as adversaries. All three states are prioritizing diplomacy over confrontation.
"Can Turkiye sustain its policy of ‘controlled neighborhood’?" by Mehmet Ali Guller, The Cradle
If Turkiye repeats the mistakes it made in Iraq and Syria, the consequences could be far more severe. The destabilization of Iran would carry major repercussions for Turkiye. There are also voices in both the US and Israel arguing that once Iraq, Syria, and Iran have been reshaped, Turkiye itself could become the next target. For this reason, Ankara must preserve its policy of controlled and balanced neighborhood relations.
One threat to this approach lies in further missile-related provocations. Another lies in the potential risks posed by foreign military bases on Turkish territory. Until the conflict ends, Turkiye should suspend US operational activities at these bases and enforce that decision. Only by doing so can Ankara avoid being drawn into a confrontation that threatens both regional stability and its own security.
Imamoglu Corruption Trial Opens as Prosecutors Probe CHP Leader Ozel
The long-awaited corruption trial involving jailed Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu began on March 9, with hundreds of defendants appearing in the sweeping case.
At the start of the hearing, Imamoglu asked for permission to speak and urged the judge to “respect the right of people to defend themselves,” but the judge refused. Imamoglu later objected to the court’s decision to hear other defendants before him and walked toward the bench in protest.
Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Ozgur Ozel spoke outside the Marmara prison complex in Silivri after attending the first hearing. He criticized both the conduct of the session and the makeup of the court panel, arguing the judges lacked sufficient experience to oversee the trial.
“There are three judges on the bench, and their total seniority amounts to 11 years,” Ozel said. He added that two panel members had about 2 years of judicial experience and were appointed in May 2024. Ozel also accused the court of serious procedural failings, claiming the presiding judge even forgot to conduct a roll call before attempting to open proceedings.
Later the same day, prosecutors launched an investigation into Ozel over allegations that he insulted the panel of judges in his remarks. The Bakirkoy Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office said on X that it opened the probe ex officio.
Kusadası Mayor Detained in Bribery and Misconduct Probe
Turkish authorities detained an opposition mayor in western Turkey on March 13 as part of an investigation into alleged bribery and misconduct. Omer Gunel, the mayor of Kusadasi, a major resort town on Turkey’s Aegean coast run by the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), was taken into custody along with five others, including two businessmen.
Prosecutors said the operation was coordinated by the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office and involved simultaneous raids in Aydin, Izmir, and Antalya provinces. Authorities are investigating the suspects on allegations of bribery and “extortion in office.”
Bahceli Urges Gov’t to Act as Regional Stabilizer Amid Middle East Tensions
Devlet Bahceli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), said Turkey must strengthen its position as a central country capable of easing regional tensions and rebuilding strategic balance in the Middle East.
Speaking at an iftar event with his party’s mayors at the ATO Congressium in Ankara, Bahceli stated that developments in the Middle East constitute not only a regional crisis but also a historic test of Turkey’s geopolitical standing and security architecture.
He urged Ankara to adopt a calm, strategic state approach centered on national interests, rather than emotional reactions or political rhetoric.
Turkish Central Bank Reserves Drop to $197.47 Billion
Turkish central bank reserves fell to $197.47 billion in the week ending March 6, down from $210.2 billion the previous week, amid market volatility tied to the war in neighboring Iran.
The decline reflected losses in both foreign exchange and gold holdings. Gross foreign exchange reserves fell by $10.6 billion to $62.7 billion, while gold reserves declined by $2.1 billion to $134.7 billion.
Iran War Pressures Turkey as Investors Exit and Deficit Risks Grow
The US-Israeli war on Iran is beginning to weigh on Turkey’s economy, with Ankara facing foreign investor outflows and the risk of a wider current account deficit, Middle East Eye reported.
An international banker, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Middle East Eye that foreign investors have rapidly reduced exposure to Turkey, selling an estimated $25 billion to $30 billion in assets since the war began in late February.
The banker said investors have shifted into US dollars rather than staying exposed to Turkish assets, prompting the central bank to draw down foreign exchange reserves to support market stability.
Economists warned that if oil prices remain near $100 a barrel, annual inflation could rise by an additional five percentage points, complicating the government’s efforts to meet its year-end target.
Analysts estimate that every $10 increase in oil prices widens Turkey’s annual current account deficit by about $5.1 billion. The roughly $30-per-barrel rise since the start of the year, if sustained, would add about $15 billion to the deficit.
Turkey Holds Policy Rate at 37%
The Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee decided to keep the policy rate, the one-week repo auction rate, unchanged at 37% at its March 12 meeting. The central bank also left the overnight lending rate at 40% and the overnight borrowing rate at 35.5%.
In its statement, the bank said uncertainty has increased amid geopolitical developments, weakening global risk appetite, and pushing energy prices higher. It added that it is closely monitoring the impact of these developments on the inflation outlook through cost pressures and on overall economic activity.
Central Bank Raises 2026 Inflation Forecast Range
Turkey’s central bank raised its end-2026 inflation forecast range to 15-21 percent from 13-19 percent, and projected inflation at 6-12 percent by the end of 2027, according to its Inflation Report 2026-I released on March 12.
The bank kept its interim targets at 16 percent for end-2026 and 9 percent for end-2027, and set an interim target of 8 percent for end-2028. It also reiterated its medium-term inflation target of 5 percent.
US, Halkbank Reach Deal to Resolve Iran Sanctions Case
The US Justice Department said it has reached an agreement to resolve a long-running criminal case against Turkey’s state-owned lender, Turkey Halk Bankasi AS (Halkbank), over alleged violations of US sanctions on Iran.
A deferred prosecution agreement between the United States and Halkbank was filed in Manhattan federal court on March 9. Under the deal, Halkbank would hire an anti-money laundering expert and carry out a review of its compliance with US sanctions.
US District Judge Richard Berman paused the case for 90 days to allow the process to move forward. If Halkbank meets the terms of the agreement, prosecutors would seek dismissal of the charges after the compliance review is completed. The settlement would not require the bank to admit criminal wrongdoing or pay a judicial fine.
Turkey Competition Authority Probes 65 Audit and Advisory Firms
Turkey’s competition authority said on March 11 it opened an investigation into 65 companies in the auditing and financial advisory sector, including global accounting firms. The authority said the probe covers the Turkish units of the so-called Big Four: KPMG, PwC, Deloitte, and EY.
In its statement, the regulator said it is examining whether the companies shared service prices or client portfolios in ways that may have breached competition rules, whether they made decisions that could block market entry or distort competition, and whether they shared information that adversely affected employee rights and wages.
Turkey Probes X Account Sharing Statements from Imamoglu
Turkish prosecutors have opened an investigation into a social media account that posts statements attributed to jailed Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) presidential candidate.
The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office said on March 11 it launched an inquiry into the X account @CAOIletisim, citing complaints alleging “insulting the president” and “publicly disseminating misleading information.” After the announcement, the account’s username changed to @CAOIletisim1.
Turkish Court Hands Reduced Sentences to Ilıcak and Altan in Third Retrial
A Turkish court on March 12 sentenced veteran journalists Nazlı Ilıcak and Ahmet Altan to reduced prison terms in their third retrial on charges of “aiding a terrorist organization without being a member of that organization.”
The Istanbul 26th High Criminal Court sentenced Ilıcak to more than three years in prison and Altan to more than four years. Turkey’s Supreme Court of Appeals has overturned earlier rulings in the case three times.
After their arrests following the coup attempt on July 15, 2016, Ilıcak spent three years and three months in prison, while Altan served a total of four years and seven months behind bars.
NATO Intercepts Iranian Missiles Entering Turkish Airspace
Turkey said NATO intercepted a ballistic missile fired from Iran that entered Turkish airspace on March 9, with debris falling in Gaziantep province in southern Turkey. The interception over the country’s southeast was the second such incident in less than a week.
“A ballistic munition fired from Iran that entered Turkish airspace has been neutralized by NATO air and missile defense assets deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean,” the Turkish Defense Ministry said.
Speaking later that evening, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned Iran against “wrong and provocative steps” that could harm bilateral ties. He said Turkey is coordinating further measures with its NATO allies to ensure its security.
On March 10, the Ministry said NATO would deploy the Patriot air and missile defense system to Malatya, a province in southeast Turkey that hosts the alliance’s key radar facility at Kurecik, following the interceptions.
The Defense Ministry said NATO intercepted a third Iranian missile that entered Turkish airspace on March 13. “A ballistic munition launched from Iran and entering Turkish airspace was neutralized by NATO air and missile defense assets deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean,” the Ministry stated.
Turkey Deploys Six F-16s to Northern Cyprus After Drone Strike
Turkey’s Defense Ministry said on March 9 it deployed six F-16 fighter jets to Northern Cyprus as a security measure, days after an Iranian-made drone struck a British base on the island.
“In light of recent developments in our region, six F-16 fighter aircraft and air defense systems have been deployed to the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) as of today,” the Ministry said in a statement.
Turkish Arms Firm Rebrands US Unit After Backlash Over Israel Sales
Repkon’s US subsidiary has rebranded as Paligen Technologies following public backlash linked to ammunition sales to Israel, Middle East Eye (MEE) reported. On March 10, Repkon USA announced it had changed its name to Paligen Technologies, Inc., and described itself as a US-based defense contractor. The move came days after the US State Department announced that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio would bypass congressional review to approve a munitions sale to Israel.
A Repkon official told Middle East Eye (MEE) that the subsidiary makes most business decisions independently and that its management team is made up almost entirely of US citizens.
The official said the proposed deal involved bomb bodies and took place through the US military. The official added that the stated end user was “the US military,” not Israel, and argued that the company could not simply refuse a request from the US government.
When asked about the rebrand this week, the official said the company wanted to emphasize that it operates as an American corporation under US law. The official also said US anti-boycott laws prevent the subsidiary from declining sales to Israel.
Baghdad Seeks KRG Support to Restart Oil Exports Via Turkey Pipeline
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has urged the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to help restart crude exports of up to 200,000 barrels per day through the pipeline to Turkey, after Iraq halted all foreign oil sales on March 1 amid the US-Israeli war against Iran, Al-Monitor reported.
Kurdish leaders say they will allow exports to resume only if Baghdad agrees to resolve a long-running dispute tied to the federal government’s efforts to fully control the Kurdistan region’s foreign trade, KRG officials told Al-Monitor. “Our position is clear: dollar relief first, then oil exports,” a senior KRG official said.
US officials have been in contact with both Baghdad and Erbil to resolve the dispute and ease pressure on global oil markets, according to a senior official. A US administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, confirmed that Washington wants the pipeline to return to service.
Separately, Iraq’s Oil Ministry spokesperson Sahib Bazoun told Rudaw on March 11 that Baghdad had reached an agreement to resume exporting Kirkuk crude through the Kurdistan Region’s pipeline to Turkey’s Ceyhan port at up to 600,000 barrels per day.
A KRG official disputed the claim, however, calling Baghdad’s announcement inaccurate and stressing that the regional government has “non-negotiable” conditions, including security guarantees for oil fields and access to dollars for the Kurdistan Region. The KRG source said no oil would flow through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline until Baghdad provides security guarantees that allow oil and gas companies to resume production.
Minister Says Turkey Will Have Final Say as COP31 President
Turkey will have the final say on all COP31 decisions as summit president, while working closely with Australia, the lead negotiator, Environment Minister Murat Kurum told reporters on March 12 at a news conference in Istanbul.
“In the context of COP, we don’t have a co-presidency: Turkey is basically assuming the presidency, while Australia is responsible for the negotiations,” Kurum said.
He said Turkey and Australia must work “hand-in-hand,” and stressed that Australia “cannot take a decision which is not approved by Turkey,” which will serve as COP31 president.
Kurum also listed Turkey’s COP31 priorities as a “clean energy transition,” “zero waste,” “resilient cities,” a “climate action implementation mechanism,” and “green industrialization.”
Turkish Airlines Starts Direct Istanbul-Yerevan Flights
Turkish Airlines launched direct flights between Istanbul and Yerevan on March 11, marking a new step in the normalization process between Armenia and Turkey.
“Flights on the route Istanbul-Yerevan-Istanbul will be operated daily,” Armenia International Airports said after the Turkish flag carrier’s inaugural flight landed at Yerevan International Airport. The company added that flight frequency will gradually increase in the coming months.
.svg.avif){kind=small}
