ANALYSIS
"Ankara's Potemkin City" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
The story is well known. When the Russian Empress Catherine the Great wanted to tour the recently invaded Crimea in 1787, the Russian nobleman Grigory Potemkin wanted to impress her. As there was little prosperity to show, he decided to build fake villages with only façades along the banks of the Dnieper River. Once the empress had passed through these pasteboard villages, the structures would be quickly dismantled and rushed ahead to her next stop before her arrival. And so the phrase "Potemkin village" entered Western languages. Whether this story is true or not is debated among historians, but it is certain that Turkey is building a modern "Potemkin city" for the upcoming NATO Summit in Ankara on July 7 and 8.
"The Dual Imperative in Turkish Foreign Policy: Right-Wing Populists and Their Opposition" by Murat Somer, The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Erdoğan and the AKP have built a wide range of transnational ties. These include leader-centric networks; party and parliamentary alliances; networks rooted in shared faith, ideology, and narratives; ties with think tanks and nongovernmental organizations; and opportunistic alignments with other right-wing populist and authoritarian actors. As democratic backsliding continued, these alliances increasingly reflected the regime’s autocratic priorities.
Erdoğan’s dual imperative in foreign policy may not be sustainable: Domestic autocratization and state de-institutionalization undermine rational policymaking based on national interest. And should autocratization—most recently the deposing of CHP leadership—destabilize the country, the risks would extend well beyond Türkiye. For Türkiye, dueling visions of politics at home map onto competing orientations abroad. One vision privileges personalized power and selective defiance, while the other emphasizes institutionalized decision making, democracy, and alignment with a rules-based international order. The outcome of this contest will determine whether Türkiye aligns more closely with democratic or authoritarian powers in global politics.
"Turkey, Italy, and Europe’s defense-industrial future" by Riccardo Gasco, Brookings
Italy and Turkey share overlapping interests in the Mediterranean, including Libya, energy corridors, migration, and maritime security. Unlike Germany, Italy is less constrained by Turkish diaspora politics. Unlike Greece and Cyprus, Italy does not view Turkey mainly through direct territorial disputes. Its defense-industrial sector, led by companies such as Leonardo, Fincantieri, and Iveco, has also shown an interest in flexible partnerships that can expand markets and accelerate capability development. Italy is therefore becoming the main laboratory for testing whether Turkish defense-industrial capacity can be integrated into Europe without first resolving the broader political contradictions of EU-Turkey relations.
The relevant question is no longer whether Europe will engage Turkey on defense. That decision is already being made platform by platform, site by site, and joint venture by joint venture. The real question is whether this engagement can move beyond ad hoc strategic pragmatism and become part of a more predictable Euro-Atlantic framework.
POLITICS
Erdogan Says Legal Steps on PKK Disbandment Nearing
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on June 24 that work was underway on a legal framework aimed at accelerating the disbandment of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), adding that the proposal would soon be submitted to parliament.
"At the point we have reached, we are working on a legal framework that will speed up the disbandment of the group. Once the necessary deliberations have been made, we will present the legislation in question to parliament without too much delay," Erdogan told lawmakers from his ruling AK Party in parliament.
Arrests Mount Against CHP-Run Municipalities
Since the March 31, 2024, local elections, Turkish authorities have carried out a series of operations targeting municipalities run by the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP).
During the period, six CHP provincial mayors, including Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, were arrested. Five remain in custody.
The number of arrested CHP district mayors has reached 22, including 13 serving in Istanbul municipalities.
Authorities have also removed six provincial mayors from office, including Imamoglu, while 25 district mayors have been suspended. Adiyaman Mayor Abdurrahman Tutdere is the only provincial mayor to have returned to office after initially being detained and later placed under house arrest, which was subsequently lifted.
The investigations involve allegations including bribery, bid rigging, abuse of office, establishing a criminal organization and corruption.
Three Opposition Mayors Join Ruling AK Party
Three mayors, including two former members of the main opposition CHP, officially joined the ruling AK Party on June 25. The new members include Mehmet Ozcan, the mayor of Kesan in Edirne province, who resigned from the CHP on June 24, and Mesut Ozarslan, the mayor of Kecioren in Ankara, who left the CHP in February.
They were joined by Nevsehir Mayor Rasim Ari, who was elected from the Good Party in the 2024 local elections. Ari had left the AK Party in 2021 before returning to it.
The three mayors attended AK Party's expanded provincial chairs' meeting at party headquarters, where President Tayyip Erdogan pinned party badges on Ari, Ozarslan and Ozcan to mark their formal entry into the ruling party.
İstanbul lawmaker Nimet Özdemir, who resigned from the CHP last week, also joined the AK Party during the party’s parliamentary group meeting on June 24.
ECONOMY
MSCI Flags Investor Concerns Over Free-Float Data
MSCI stated that international institutional investors have raised concerns that fund holdings closely affiliated with certain smaller listed Turkish companies may be artificially inflating free-float estimates, potentially distorting index weightings for the affected securities.
Investors are seeking more granular ownership disclosure, robust surveillance against coordinated trading, and a rules-based framework to identify distorted free floats, MSCI said. The index provider warned it may launch a consultation on the treatment of Turkey and its securities if tangible progress is not made by the November 2026 index review.
Turkey Seizes Fuel Companies in Tax Fraud Investigation
Turkish Justice Minister Akin Gurlek announced on June 23 that authorities had seized six companies and appointed trustees to 10 others as part of a large-scale investigation into alleged tax evasion and fraud in the fuel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) sector.
In a post on X, Gurlek stated that the operation was carried out across nine provinces as part of an investigation led by the Istanbul Anadolu Chief Public Prosecutor's Office. Legal proceedings have been launched against 27 suspects.
According to Gurlek, investigators found that a corporate group operating in the fuel sector imported around 350,000 to 400,000 tons of LPG annually and allegedly sought to evade special consumption tax and value-added tax obligations by using fake invoices and fictitious export transactions.
Turkey Remains Top Summer Destination for Russians
Turkey remains the leading overseas holiday destination for Russian tourists, accounting for 57% of all bookings, according to data from the Association of Russian Tour Operators (ATOR). Turkey's visa-free entry policy remains a key driver of demand among Russian travelers.
ATOR expects around 3 million Russian tourists to visit destinations such as Antalya, Istanbul, and the Aegean coast between June and August. Egypt, Vietnam and China are also among the most popular international destinations for Russian holidaymakers.
HUMAN RIGHTS
PACE Lists Turkey Among Top Transnational Repression Offenders
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) has listed Turkey among the world's 10 leading perpetrators of transnational repression, according to a resolution adopted on June 25.
The resolution cited Freedom House data documenting 1,375 cases of physical transnational repression since 2014 carried out by 54 origin states and affecting people in 107 host states. It identified China, Turkey, Russia, Tajikistan, Egypt, Turkmenistan, Cambodia, Uzbekistan, Iran and Belarus as the top 10 perpetrators.
PACE called for a coordinated international response to governments that pursue critics beyond their borders through methods including abductions, surveillance, threats, misuse of international police and legal systems, and pressure on relatives remaining in their home countries.
The assembly also urged states to adopt laws or equivalent measures to prevent and punish transnational repression, prosecute those responsible, impose targeted sanctions on foreign officials involved in such acts, and expel or restrict diplomats found to be implicated in repression abroad.
ECtHR issues 893 new rulings against Turkey
The European Court of Human Rights ruled on June 23 that Turkey had violated rights in 893 more applications, citing the Grand Chamber's judgment in the Yalcinkaya case.
The Strasbourg-based court grouped the applications into three categories: Kilicarslan and Others v. Turkey, involving 595 applicants; Cali and Others v. Turkey, involving 264 applicants; and Donmez and Others v. Turkey, involving 34 applicants.
In Kilicarslan and Others v. Turkey, the court found violations of Article 6 and Article 7 of the European Convention on Human Rights. Article 6 guarantees the right to a fair trial, while Article 7 bars punishment without law.
In Cali and Others v. Turkey, the court found a violation of the right to a fair trial. In Donmez and Others v. Turkey, the court found a violation of the principle that there can be no punishment without law.
With the latest decisions linked to the Yalcinkaya judgment, the ECtHR has issued 3,554 similar violation rulings against Turkey in total.
NATO Denies Summit Accreditation to Critical Turkish Media Outlets
NATO has rejected accreditation applications from several Turkish media outlets seeking to cover the alliance's July 7-8 summit in Ankara, informing applicants that the decision is final and that it cannot disclose the reasons.
The outlets denied accreditation include Birgun, Halk TV, Sozcu, Cumhuriyet, Evrensel, Anka, Nefes, Medyascope and Ilke TV, known for critical or independent coverage in Turkey.
The rejection notices were sent by NATO Accreditations, part of the alliance's Office of Strategic Communications. In emails shared online, NATO informed applicants that their requests had been denied but did not give a reason.
"I regret to say that your request for media accreditation cannot be granted this time. I cannot discuss the reasons for this decision, which is final," the email stated.
Turkish Authorities Arrest 128 in Nationwide Operations Targeting Gulen Movement
Turkey's Interior Ministry announced on June 24 that 128 of the 237 people detained in operations targeting the Gulen movement across several provinces over the past two weeks have been arrested. Judicial control measures were imposed on 61 others.
The ministry alleged that those detained held senior or responsible positions within the movement and provided financial support to the movement.
Kaos GL editor among 178 arrested before NATO summit in Ankara
Turkish authorities arrested Yildiz Tar, editor-in-chief of Kaos GL, along with 103 others on charges of “membership in a terrorist organization” after pre-dawn police raids in Ankara ahead of a NATO summit.
Police issued detention warrants for 241 people and detained 225 in raids across Turkey’s capital on June 23, about two weeks before the NATO summit scheduled for July 7-8 in the city. Authorities alleged the suspects were linked to various organizations.
After questioning at Ankara police headquarters, 129 people were referred to the court. In a referral seeking their arrest, prosecutors stated that the suspects "could carry out a terrorist act in an effort to have Turkey identified as a country associated with terrorism," citing this as the basis for requesting detention.
The court ordered the arrest of 103 people, including Tar, while 26 others were released under judicial control measures.
It was later reported that a further 75 people had been arrested, bringing the total to 178 ahead of the NATO summit.
FOREIGN POLICY
U.S. Formally Notifies Congress of $700 Mln Jet Engine Sale to Turkey
U.S. President Donald Trump's administration plans to move forward with the sale of dozens of jet engines to Turkey worth more than $700 million despite objections from some members of Congress, Reuters reported, citing four sources familiar with the matter.
Asked on June 24 about the jet engine sale, Turkey's participation in the F-35 program and his plans for a summit in Ankara, Trump said: "I'm going to probably do something that will make them very happy."
Representative Gregory Meeks of New York, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, has objected during the informal congressional review process and has not approved the proposed sale, two of the sources, including a U.S. official, stated.
Speaking alongside Trump, Vice President JD Vance noted that the administration was reviewing whether Turkey had met the legal requirements to receive F-35 fighter jets.
Separately, a group of members of the U.S. House of Representatives sent a letter to Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Hegseth urging them not to approve the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, citing Ankara's continued possession of the Russian S-400 air defense system.
The U.S. administration has formally notified Congress of its intention to sell dozens of jet engines to Turkey, according to a copy of the notification seen by Reuters. "The U.S. government is prepared to license the export of these items, having taken into account political, military, economic, human rights, and arms control considerations," the State Department stated in its notification to Congress.
Syria's Sharaa May Visit Ankara During NATO Summit
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa is expected to visit Ankara around the time Turkey hosts the NATO summit on July 7-8, according to people familiar with the matter, although no official announcement has been made. Al-Sharaa could hold talks on the sidelines of the summit, the sources told Bloomberg.
The visit would not be part of the NATO summit's official agenda, but it could provide an opportunity for alliance leaders to meet Sharaa to discuss regional security, counterterrorism and Syria's reconstruction after years of civil war, the report stated.
Neither the Turkish nor the Syrian authorities have officially announced the visit.
Israel Approves Recognition of Armenian Genocide
The Israeli government voted on June 28 to formally recognize the mass killings of Armenians during World War I after approving a resolution proposed by Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar late last week.
"The Israeli government approved a short time ago the resolution I presented recognizing the Armenian genocide," Sa'ar announced after the vote. "It's never too late to do the right thing."
The decision still requires ratification by Israel's parliament before it takes effect.
EU Criticises Turkey Over Cyprus’ Exclusion from COP31 Preparations
The European Union criticised Turkey for excluding Cyprus from preparations for this year's U.N. climate summit, adding to diplomatic tensions ahead of the COP31 talks.
At a meeting of EU climate ministers on June 25, Cyprus stated Turkey had not invited it to two preparatory meetings for COP31 in New York and Tokyo.
Turkish officials said Cyprus had been invited to all COP31-related events coordinated by the United Nations, including meetings in Bonn and St. Petersburg, but not to events organised independently by Turkey for national-level preparation, consultation and promotion, such as a "Zero Waste" event in New York.
However, EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra stated that the bloc's member states had agreed not to accept Turkey's approach. "The full solidarity the other 26 (EU member countries) will apply," Hoekstra told a news conference late on June 25, adding that he had informed the United Nations and Turkey's mission to the EU that excluding Cyprus was "unacceptable."
EU Anti-Fraud Office Uncovers Illegal Textile Waste Shipments to Turkey
Thousands of tonnes of textile waste were illegally shipped from Italy to Turkey under misleading labels as part of a scheme to evade costly recycling requirements and environmental regulations, the European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF) announced.
Working with Turkish customs authorities, OLAF identified around 4,200 tonnes of textile waste that had been illegally exported from Italy after suspicious shipments were inspected upon arrival in Turkey, according to an OLAF statement.
The agency also reported that intelligence gathered during the investigation led to the discovery of another 768 tonnes of textile waste from Italy stored at the Turkish port of Mersin. The waste was allegedly linked to the same fraudulent network, incorrectly labelled and prepared for illegal dumping.
Separately, inspectors found nearly 2,100 tonnes of textile waste stored at a Turkish recycling facility.
According to Eurostat data released in May 2026, Turkey was the largest destination for European Union exports of recyclable raw materials in 2025, receiving 12.8 million tonnes.
Russian Drone Strikes Turkish Cargo Ship in Black Sea, Killing Sailor
A Russian drone struck a Turkish-owned cargo vessel heading to a Ukrainian port early on June 22, killing one crew member and setting the ship on fire, Ukrainian authorities stated.
The Panamanian-flagged bulk carrier Victress, owned by a Turkish company and carrying nine crew members from Egypt, Turkey and India, was hit in the Black Sea. The strike caused a fire and significant damage to the vessel, according to the Ukrainian Naval Forces and the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority.
Ukrainian naval forces launched a rescue operation and evacuated the crew on a lifeboat. One sailor, a 58-year-old cook, was killed in the attack.
Turkey Intelligence Chief Meets Eastern Libyan Commander
Turkey's intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin met Saddam Haftar, the son and deputy of eastern Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar, in Benghazi on June 23, marking the latest effort by Ankara to strengthen ties with a faction it once backed forces against during the battle for Tripoli.
Kalin, head of Turkey's National Intelligence Organization (MIT), discussed maintaining peace in Libya and efforts to unify the country's rival eastern and western administrations and military forces under a single authority, state-run Anadolu Agency reported.
The meeting also focused on Turkey-Libya relations, expanding cooperation across several sectors and strengthening the partnership between the two sides, Anadolu said.
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