ANALYSIS
"Erdogan is Forcibly Designing His Own Opposition" By Salim Çevik, Foreign Policy
A bloc of CHP deputies—those most closely tied to Kilicdaroglu—is likely to side with the reinstated leadership. Their votes could bring the government within reach of the supermajority required for constitutional amendments, including provisions that would allow Erdogan to run for another term.
Long-term consequences matter more. Erdogan’s authority has rested for a decade less on his own popularity than on the opposition’s inability to consolidate against him. Even in 2023, against a candidate as weak as Kilicdaroglu, he won by a margin that was too close for his comfort. Now, as Erdogan ages, he is trying to build a political architecture that he can pass on to a designated successor. Increasingly, that appears to be where the real contest will occur.
"An Arab-Turkish Helsinki Process?" by Amr Hamzawy, Ahram Online
Experience has demonstrated that the absence of inclusive regional frameworks leaves the Middle East vulnerable to external intervention and proxy conflicts. Furthermore, the perpetual reliance on the major global powers to provide security has proven to be of limited utility, particularly in a world trending towards multipolarity, where the US capacity to impose stable, long-term arrangements is on the decline. Thus, the construction of a regional collective security system is no longer a mere intellectual exercise, but rather a strategic imperative.
Just as Europe, following decades of devastating wars, required a “Helsinki moment” to end them, so the Middle East today stands in need of a similar moment, one that would begin with an Arab initiative and a Turkish partnership, while keeping the door open to Iran and Israel provided that they accept the transition a from logic of expansion and conflict to a logic of the normal state and shared security.
"Turkey’s Limited Role in the Iran War" by Soner Cagaptay, The Washington Institute
Power parity informs the view from Ankara, which has a strong interest in preventing Iran from going nuclear or alternatively falling into chaos—even as the war’s outcome will be largely outside Turkish control.
Given Turkey’s desire to prevent Iran from going nuclear or being overtaken by chaos, Ankara would seem well positioned to serve as a go-between to end the war. Such a formulation also takes account of Erdogan’s strong chemistry with President Trump. But a competitive bilateral history will make Tehran unwilling to let Ankara earn credit for ending the war. This is why Turkey has followed Pakistan’s thus far unsuccessful lead toward a political settlement. It is also why the current scenario does not mirror the Syrian war, when Turkey occupied center stage on matters relevant to U.S. policy.
POLITICS
Supporters Rally for Ousted CHP Leader in Ankara
Supporters of Turkey’s main opposition party turned out in large numbers for the party’s ousted leader during rival Eid al-Adha events at Guvenpark, a central square in Ankara, on May 30. The former chairman, reinstated by a court order, addressed a crowd from CHP headquarters the same day, a day after police had cleared it of Ozel supporters following the ruling.
Ozel said the court decision interfered with voters’ ability to change power through elections. “We are not the ‘appointed CHP,’ we are the ‘elected CHP,’” he said.
He urged Kilicdaroglu to set a date for the congress, saying all 2 million CHP members should be allowed to vote for the party leader. Ozel also said he would not run for the chairmanship again if he failed to secure at least 85% support in such a vote.
Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas, one of the party’s most prominent figures, joined Ozel and called for a congress to be organised as soon as possible. “My position from the beginning has been on the side of democracy,” Yavas said.
Kilicdaroglu, speaking at CHP headquarters, promised a “clean congress” but said he would first hold people accountable, accusing unnamed figures inside the party of corruption, betrayal and harming the CHP’s name. He also said he regretted not identifying earlier those he accused of foreign links and corrupt practices in municipalities.
On May 30, Zeynel Emre, spokesperson for the CHP leadership aligned with Ozgur Ozel, said after an executive meeting that delaying a congress would threaten the party’s legal eligibility to contest elections under Turkey’s political party laws and urged the party to organise a new congress without delay.
Emre said a court annulment of all party congresses held since November 2023 effectively reverted the CHP’s last valid congress to July 2020, and under Turkish law, parties must hold congresses within specified time limits to remain eligible for elections.
Bahceli Urges CHP to End Infighting and Hold Congress
In an interview published in the Turkgun newspaper on May 27, MHP leader Devlet Bahceli said it was unacceptable for Turkish politics to be dragged into instability through the CHP.
He said CHP leaders Kemal Kilicdaroglu and Ozgur Ozel should abandon their hostile language. Bahceli urged the CHP to renew its current members, register new ones, and launch a congress process, suggesting September 9 as the date, the party's founding anniversary.
He said that in this way, Kilicdaroglu would be serving the Republican People's Party and fulfilling a historical responsibility.
Ocalan Warns Delay Will 'Generate Risk'
Jailed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) founder Abdullah Ocalan warned against delaying legal steps to advance a peace process with Turkey, saying continued uncertainty would “generate risk.”
The message was released on May 25 by a delegation from the pro‑Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) after a party delegation visited Ocalan on Imrali Island the day before.
“All these efforts must be grounded in a legal framework,” Ocalan said, urging those involved to act with “responsibility.” “Remaining in a state of expectation, or prolonging that state, only generates risk. We have no time to lose.”
Ocalan also criticised clashes at the headquarters of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) in Ankara on May 24, asking: “Is breaking into the headquarters of a political party by smashing the door with a sledgehammer something that should happen in a democracy?” He said the incident was an “indicator of the absence of a properly functioning democracy and democratic politics.”
Speaking on May 28 at an event in Van, DEM Party lawmaker Pervin Buldan said the delegation had a three‑hour meeting with Ocalan focused on an upcoming law. Buldan said the framework law, comprising about seven or eight articles, would be a one‑time measure allowing members of the organisation to travel to and from Turkey or other locations within a set timeframe. She added that the party aimed to speed up contacts and present the draft to Ocalan as soon as possible.
ECONOMY
Turkey Central Bank Sells $7 Billion to Curb FX Volatility
Turkey's central bank sold an estimated $7 billion in foreign currency to limit market volatility as the war in Iran and court rulings that removed the leadership of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) fuelled demand for foreign exchange, Reuters calculations based on banking sources showed.
About $3 billion of the sales took place after a court annulled the 2023 CHP congress, effectively removing its leader, Ozgur Ozel, the calculations showed. The remaining sales were made before the decision amid market unrest linked to the risk of war in Iran.
The Reuters-based calculations indicate the central bank's net foreign reserves fell by about $5 billion over the week to approximately $47 billion.
Turkey's Import Growth Close to Global Pace, but Export Rise Lags
Total global imports rose from $24.2 trillion in 2024 to $25.8 trillion in 2025, a 6.4% increase, the World Trade Organization data showed.
Turkey increased imports from $344 billion to $365.4 billion in the same period, a 6.2% rise — close to the global pace — placing it 22nd among the top 50 importing countries and giving it a 1.4% share of world imports.
Global exports rose 7.2% to $25.6 trillion in 2025. Turkey’s exports grew from $261.8 billion in 2024 to $273.4 billion in 2025, a 4.4% increase that lagged the global gain. The country slipped two places in the top‑50 exporters ranking from 29th to 31st, with a 1.1% share of world exports.
Unpaid Loans with Debt Collectors Surge 68% to 132 Billion Lira
The amount of unpaid loans handled by Turkey’s debt collection companies rose 68% over the past year to 132 billion lira. The increase reflects a shift of nonperforming loans from bank balance sheets to asset management companies, which buy portfolios at a discount and seek to collect from borrowers.
Receivables at asset management companies stood at 79 billion lira in March 2025, rose to 101 billion lira in September 2025 and reached 132 billion lira in March 2026. Some 2.26 million people had debts under follow‑up by such companies as of March.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Turkish Prisons Severely Overcrowded as Prison Rate Jumps
The Council of Europe’s 2025 annual penal statistics on prison populations (SPACE I) show Turkey’s prison system is severely overcrowded, and its imprisonment rate rose sharply between January 2024 and January 2025.
The report said Turkey was among nine prison systems classified as severely overcrowded, recording 131 inmates per 100 places - the same level reported for France.
It added that Turkey experienced the largest year-on-year increase in imprisonment rates among reporting systems, rising by 29% from January 2024 to January 2025.
As of 31 January 2025, the report put Turkey’s imprisonment rate at 458 inmates per 100,000 inhabitants, the highest in Europe. This figure significantly outpaced the next-closest countries, Azerbaijan and the Republic of Moldova, which recorded rates of 271 and 245, respectively.
Turkey Court Scraps Parts of Digital Search, Seizure Law
Turkey's Constitutional Court has annulled several provisions of Article 134 of the Criminal Procedure Code, which governs the search, copying and seizure of computers, computer programs and computer files, finding them unconstitutional.
According to the ruling published on May 25 in the Official Gazette, the top court struck down certain provisions covering the seizure of devices for copying computer data and carrying out analysis.
The court said adequate safeguards were not clearly set out for protecting data unrelated to an investigation, including retention periods, destruction, return, and effective legal remedies for those affected by digital copying and seizure procedures.
The annulment will take effect nine months after the ruling was published in the Official Gazette, giving parliament time to introduce new safeguards in Article 134.
FOREIGN POLICY
Bloomberg: Erdogan Seeks Meeting with Trump During World Cup Game
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seeking a meeting with President Donald Trump around the time of the Turkey‑US World Cup soccer game in Los Angeles in June, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
Any sit‑down would come less than two weeks before Turkey is due to host the NATO summit in Ankara.
Erdogan plans to attend the Group D match at SoFi Stadium on June 25, the sources added, but the location and timing of any meeting have yet to be decided. However, a White House official said a meeting is not scheduled at this time.
Trump Names Tom Barrack Special Envoy to Syria and Iraq
U.S. President Donald Trump said on May 31 that Tom Barrack will serve as Special Presidential Envoy to both Syria and Iraq, expanding his diplomatic role while continuing to serve as ambassador to Turkey.
Trump wrote on his Truth Social that “United States Ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack, who has done an outstanding job, will be named Special Presidential Envoy to Syria and, likewise, Special Presidential Envoy to Iraq, as we advance our strategic cooperation with the Governments of Syria and Iraq.”
He added that Barrack would remain ambassador to Turkey while carrying out the new responsibilities.
Turkish FM Fidan: US‑Iran Deal 'Closer than Ever'
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said a US‑Iran agreement is "closer than ever" and that negotiations have shifted toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz before returning to Iran's nuclear file, in an interview with Nikkei Asia published on May 30.
"Both sides want to reach a positive conclusion," Fidan said, adding that a final agreement on reopening the strait would be followed by talks on Iran's nuclear programme.
Asked about US President Donald Trump's call for Turkey and other Muslim‑majority countries to join the Abraham Accords with Israel, Fidan said Ankara could resume normal ties with Israel if it stopped killing Palestinians and allowed basic supplies into Gaza.
"If these are met, we can go back to normal life," he said, adding, "We want to achieve a two‑state solution."
Turkey Warns Against Escalation After Black Sea Drone Attacks
Three tankers were reportedly attacked and struck by Ukrainian sea drones in the Black Sea near Turkey's northern coast on May 28, with all crew members reported safe.
Two drones hit the Sierra Leone-flagged Velora but failed to detonate, while a third struck the Palau-flagged tanker James II nearby. The Altura, which was previously hit in March, was also damaged.
Separately, Ukraine said on May 29 that a Turkish cargo ship flying the Vanuatu flag, sailing from Odesa towards Turkey, was struck by a drone it alleged belonged to Russia. Two sailors were injured, and the vessel sustained damage.
“Our warning to all relevant parties to avoid steps that could lead to the uncontrolled escalation of the war remains in place,” the Turkish Foreign Ministry said on May 29 in a statement. The ministry also said Ankara was ready to help develop regional, results-oriented measures to prevent escalation and speed up the peace process.
Iraq Seeks New Turkey Oil Transit Deal Before Existing One Expires
Iraq will seek a new oil transit agreement with Turkey before the 1973 Iraq-Turkey crude oil pipeline agreement, last renewed in 2010, terminates on July 27.
Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi's Cabinet authorized Iraq's Oil Ministry to begin talks with Turkey on a long-term agreement covering transit tariffs, delivery volumes and commercial and technical requirements, according to a Cabinet statement published on May 25.
EU Says Cyprus Exclusion from COP31 Briefing 'Not Acceptable'
The European Union said on May 28 it was “not acceptable” that Turkey excluded Cyprus from a recent briefing at the United Nations in New York on the COP31 climate conference.
“We have made it clear that the exclusion of a United Nations member state from the preparation process of the UN COP31 climate conference is not acceptable,” EU spokeswoman Anna-Kaisa Itkonen told reporters in Brussels.
She said Turkey had assured the bloc that Cyprus would not be excluded from future COP31 preparatory meetings, adding that the EU was also in contact with the UN on the matter.
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