ANALYSIS
"Turkey's War in Somalia and the Limits of Military Support in Africa" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Turkey crossed another threshold in Africa this week. On June 30, Turkish F-16 fighter jets struck Al-Shabaab positions in Somalia in the first publicly acknowledged combat use of Turkish warplanes in the country. According to Somalia's Ministry of Defense, the strikes, conducted in support of the Somali National Army, targeted caves, weapons depots, and hideouts, killing approximately 35 militants and seriously wounding more than 20 others. The ministry credited the Turkish armed forces by name and thanked Ankara for its support.
Turkey's Somalia policy illustrates how external assistance can gradually evolve into direct military responsibility as the partner government's dependence deepens. There is a real risk that Somalia becomes a bottomless well that will drain Turkish resources. Without a political and diplomatic resolution, military power alone cannot sustain a friendly government that is unable to control much beyond its capital or exert authority over vast swaths of its territory. The financial burden of sustaining underperforming partners is one reason Western militaries have been forced to disengage from Africa since decolonization. From Vietnam to Afghanistan, and to Mali such ventures have rarely ended well for the foreign powers.
"NATO allies have grown silent on rights concerns in Turkey" by Jonathan Spicer, Reuters
Especially since Russia's invasion of Ukraine a year later left Europe feeling exposed — the West has mostly avoided publicly raising concerns about Turkey's record on rights and freedoms, instead focusing on boosting security ties with the regional military power and big arms exporter.
Western allies are now signalling they have "given up on values to an extent and prefer a transactional relationship ... knowing that Turkey is indispensable for the defence of Europe," said Karol Wasilewski, head of Turkey, Caucasus and Central Asia at the Warsaw-based Center for Eastern Studies. Ankara knows that any Western criticism, including over the crackdown on the opposition CHP, will be muted and "won't translate into actions", Wasilewski said.
"Ahead of the Ankara Summit, NATO’s Mood Has Changed" by Sophia Besch, Alper Coşkun, Nate Reynolds, Stephen Wertheim, The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The possibility of a more EU-centered security architecture that leaves Turkey on the margins is a serious concern for Ankara. Persistent objections from several EU member states to institutional cooperation with Turkey on EU-led security and defense initiatives, such as the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) program, corroborate these concerns in Turkish eyes. Ironically, such snubs contradict a widening recognition among European actors of the need to tap into Turkey’s military capabilities and burgeoning defense industry.
Turkey’s improved relations with Washington and its strong desire to retain a decisive role in the European pillar of transatlantic security could potentially represent a strategic dilemma for Ankara. European actors, increasingly wary of America’s posture and intentions, will look at deepening ties between Turkey and the United States with suspicion. The United States, for its part, will prefer a less compliant Turkish posture vis-à-vis Europe, especially under the fraught conditions in which Washington’s ties with Europe find themselves.
Report: "The Language of Turkish Foreign Affairs: A Discourse Analysis of Press Releases by the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs", by Bercin Yigitaslan, Institute of Social Studies
The discursive compass of Turkish diplomacy has shifted from Europe to the Middle East over the last quarter century. While 27.7% of press releases in 2004 were related to the EU accession process, 28.7% in 2024 were related to the Israel-Palestine issue.
On the emotional scale, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Somalia represent the positive pole, while Israel represents the negative pole. Israel also has an exceptional dual profile: while it was the target of 127 messages of condemnation, it was also mentioned on the positive side in 42 condemnations of incidents. This data alone reflects the shift in discourse in bilateral relations over the last quarter century.
Ministerial profiles differ significantly. During Babacan's tenure, the language of solution and compromise reached its peak at 23.4%. During the Davutoglu era, references to solidarity (29.8%), determination (17.6%) and concern (26.7%) all increased simultaneously. During the Cavusoglu era, a hardening of attitudes peaked, with condemnation at 24.5%, terrorism at 22.8% and concern at 30.1%. The Fidan era shows the peak of language expressing sovereignty (6.1%) and rights or claims (5.5%), while normative and legal language remained quite high at 19.8%.
POLITICS
DEVA in Talks with Parties to Build Broader Opposition Alliance
Ali Babacan, a former economy chief under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, announced that the Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA) is holding talks with several parties to form a broader alliance that could offer voters an alternative to Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party).
Speaking to journalists in Ankara, Babacan stated DEVA has been in dialogue with the New Welfare Party (YRP) and that the YRP had expressed support for an alliance.
He said the immediate priority is to identify which parties will join forces, with other options such as joint candidate lists or a single presidential candidate to be considered later.
Commenting on recent developments within the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), Babacan stated that he had no contact with the removed CHP leader, Ozgur Ozel, or the reinstated chairman, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. He added that the CHP must first resolve its internal disputes and consolidate an alliance internally before broader opposition cooperation can be discussed.
Report Says CHP Leader Ozel Exploring New Party Option
Daily Haberturk claimed that a new party is reportedly being formed under the leadership of the Republican People's Party (CHP) removed chairman Ozgur Ozel may use the name "New Party", citing sources close to Ozel.
The report stated that the 45-day window for calling an extraordinary congress expires on July 26 and that, under party rules, the congress decision should be announced by July 11. It added that the party officials expect the Supreme Court to conclude the legal process over an absolute nullity ruling before the judicial recess begins on July 20.
The report also said Ozel's team is weighing options in the event of a snap election, including joining an existing party eligible to run. Sources stated that Ozel’s aides have contacted the Anatolian Unity Party and the Innovation Party led by former CHP MP Ozturk Yilmaz.
Ankara MP Adnan Beker Resigns from CHP
Ankara MP Adnan Beker announced on July 4 that he has resigned from the CHP and will continue to serve as an independent lawmaker.
Beker, who resigned from the Good Party in November 2023 before joining the CHP in March 2025, shared the decision via a social media post. He stated that he chose to leave the party because he believed a political struggle within its current structure would not benefit the country.
CHP Dismisses 26 Provincial Chairmen in Party Reshuffle
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, CHP’s reinstated chairman, dismissed 26 provincial chairmen on June 30 following a decision by the party's Central Executive Board. The party appointed new provincial heads in six of the 26 affected provinces.
The move comes after Kilicdaroglu was reinstated to his post by a court ruling. As part of the restructuring, the party also dissolved central district organizations in several provinces.
Party spokesperson Muslim Sari announced that seven additional provincial chairmen had been referred to the party's disciplinary committee with a request for their permanent expulsion.
ECONOMY
Turkey's annual inflation edges down to 32.1% in June
Turkey's annual inflation eased to 32.1 percent in June from 32.6 percent in May, official data showed on July 3. Consumer prices rose 0.99 percent month-on-month in June, slowing from a 1.7 percent gain in May, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) announced.
However, the Inflation Research Group (ENAG), comprised of independent economists, challenged the official figures and estimated annual inflation at 51.4 percent in June.
Turkish Central Bank Reserves Fall Below $150 Billion
Turkey’s Central Bank gross foreign exchange reserves fell by $5.26 billion to $54.251 billion in the week to June 26, down from $59.511 billion a week earlier,
Gold reserves also declined by $2.731 billion over the same period, dropping from $97.685 billion to $94.954 billion.
Combined, the bank's total reserves decreased by $7.991 billion in the week to June 26 compared with the previous week, sliding from $157.196 billion to $149.205 billion and dipping below the $150 billion threshold for the first time since the week of May 16, 2025.
Turkey's Five-Month Trade Deficit Widens to $42.7 Billion
Turkey's exports fell 9.5% year-on-year in May to $22.5 billion, while imports declined 10.8% to $28.1 billion, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute and the Trade Ministry showed. The sharper fall in imports helped narrow the foreign trade deficit by 15.6% to $5.6 billion in May.
In the first five months of the year, exports edged up 0.2% to $111.12 billion, while imports rose 1.1% to $153.83 billion. As a result, the trade deficit widened 3.6% in January-May to $42.72 billion. The export-to-import coverage ratio fell to 72.2% from 72.9% a year earlier.
Turkey Eyes Entry into EU's SEPA Payment System
Turkey is interested in joining the European Union's SEPA (Single Euro Payments Area) payment system, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced on July 1, adding that relevant financial institutions were working on the issue. Fidan made the remarks at a press conference in response to a question about his talks with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and two other EU commissioners, held in Ankara on June 30.
Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said on July 2 that Turkey has submitted a letter of intent to join SEPA.
SEPA is a European payment system designed to make cross-border payments cheaper and faster within participating countries. Under current practice, sending between 1,000 and 5,000 euros from Europe to Turkey can cost up to 40 euros, depending on the bank and the transaction amount.
IC Holding Targets 20 Small Modular Nuclear Reactors in Turkey and Region
Turkish conglomerate IC Holding plans to develop up to 20 small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) in Turkey and neighboring countries through a strategic partnership with U.S.-based ARC Clean Technology.
Murad Bayar, chair of IC Nuclear Technology, announced on July 1 that the company aims to build 10 reactors in Turkey with a combined capacity of 1,000 megawatts (MW). The plan also includes developing an additional 10 reactors in neighboring countries.
Each ARC reactor is designed to produce 100 MW of electricity. Bayar estimated the initial plant would require an investment of approximately $500 million, or $5 million per MW. The company expects costs to decline to around $300 million per plant, or $3 million per MW, as the technology matures and production scales up.
Emirates NBD in Early Talks to Buy HSBC's Turkey Operations
Emirates NBD PJSC is in early-stage talks to buy HSBC Holdings Plc’s Turkey operations, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
The Dubai-based lender already owns Turkey’s Denizbank AS after acquiring it from Russia’s Sberbank PJSC in 2019, and has been seeking to expand its Turkish footprint, the sources said.
Turkey Seeks Exemption from New EU Duties on Small Online Exports
The European Union on July 1 started applying a temporary €3 duty on many online purchases worth €150 or less shipped into the bloc from outside the EU, charging the fee by customs category rather than by package.
Turkey's Trade Minister Omer Bolat stated on July 2 that Ankara had held talks with the European Commission from the outset of the EU's preparations to safeguard the rights of Turkish exporters under the customs union.
Bolat announced the commission told Turkish authorities that products in free circulation in Turkey shipped to the EU with an A.TR certificates can continue to receive preferential treatment if they are declared via the H1 customs declaration.
He added that Ankara is seeking an exemption from a separate handling fee the EU is considering at a later stage.
Government Denies Claims ASELSAN to be Sold to BlackRock
Turkey's presidential communications office denied claims that ASELSAN, the country's largest defense electronics company, would be sold or transferred to U.S. investment giant BlackRock, calling the allegations "baseless" and "untrue."
Mahmut Arikan, leader of the opposition Felicity Party (SP), claimed that BlackRock was interested in acquiring ASELSAN and that U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack had been tasked with facilitating the process.
Arikan also recalled a March meeting between BlackRock Chairman Larry Fink and President Erdogan. "What did you discuss with Larry Fink? What promises did you make? Was ASELSAN mentioned in this meeting?" Arikan asked.
Turkey's Directorate of Communications' Center for Combating Disinformation stated on July 3 that there was no plan to sell or transfer ASELSAN to any foreign company.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Turkish Journalists Make Up Majority of Defendants in Insult Cases
Turkish journalists accounted for nearly two-thirds of defendants in cases involving charges of insulting the president or public officials over a 17-month period, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan the leading complainant, according to a report by the Media and Law Studies Association (MLSA).
The report monitored 120 hearings between January 2025 and May 2026, during which 74 journalists were tried as defendants.
Cases involving charges of insulting Erdogan accounted for 44.2% of the monitored hearings, or 53 cases, while accusations of insulting public officials made up 34.2%, or 41 cases. Prosecutors cited social media posts and news reports as evidence in more than one-third of the hearings, or 45 cases, the report stated.
Of the 32 cases concluded during the monitoring period, 12 ended in convictions, including nine suspended sentences, while 11 cases resulted in acquittals.
Comedian Deniz Goktas Arrested After Detention at Istanbul Airport
Turkish comedian Deniz Goktas was arrested on July 3 after being detained at Istanbul Airport on his return from abroad as part of an investigation into allegations he insulted religious values in his viral stand-up show "Olu Deniz."
Goktas, 32, was held during passport control and taken to a police station to give a statement. Images circulated showing him handcuffed behind his back during detention, prompting a strong public reaction.
Goktas denied the accusations in his statement, stating the show has been performed for about three years across Turkey and watched live by more than 100,000 people. He added that he had not received complaints from viewers claiming their religious feelings were hurt.
Hundreds of people, including members of political parties, professional groups and civil society organizations, gathered outside the Caglayan Courthouse in support of Goktas.
Following his court appearance, Goktas was formally arrested pending trial.
FOREIGN POLICY
Erdogan Urges NATO Allies To Lift Defence Trade Restrictions
Turkish President Erdogan called on NATO allies to respect each other's national security concerns and strengthen alliance unity ahead of the upcoming summit.
"Our main expectation from the summit is to achieve results that protect allies' national security sensitivities and reinforce the spirit of solidarity and unity within the alliance," Erdogan said on June 29 at an event for parliamentarians from NATO member states in Istanbul.
"If we want to confront the challenges we face, we must lift restrictions on defence industry trade while carrying out burden sharing in a balanced and fair manner," he stated, adding that Turkey was doing its part to meet NATO's defence spending targets.
He further noted that, as a nation with a significant role in developing the alliance's European pillar, Turkey remains willing to participate in all defense and security initiatives across the continent.
NATO Releases Schedule for Ankara Summit on July 7-8
NATO on July 4 released the official programme for its Ankara summit, with alliance leaders due to meet on July 7 and 8.
The summit opens on Monday with a 4:45 p.m. pre-summit news conference by Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte at the international media centre.
Tuesday’s agenda features a NATO Defence Industry Forum at the ATO Congresium, where Rutte and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are scheduled to speak. Foreign ministers will meet Istanbul Cooperation Initiative partners at 5 p.m. at Turkey’s presidential compound, followed by a reception and dinner for heads of state and government hosted by President Tayyip Erdogan.
The main meeting of the North Atlantic Council at head-of-state and government level is set to begin on Wednesday at 11:15 a.m.
The summit will review progress since the 2025 Hague meeting and set a roadmap for alliance priorities, including defence investment, boosting defence industry production, and supporting Ukraine.
EU Foreign Policy Chief Meets Erdogan Ahead of NATO Summit
A senior European Union delegation led by the bloc's foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, met Turkish President Erdogan in Ankara on June 30 ahead of next week's NATO summit.
The delegation included EU Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Kos, and Commissioner for Internal Affairs and Migration, Magnus Brunner. Erdogan received Kallas and her delegation at the presidential complex in a closed-door meeting.
In a post on X, Kallas said the talks focused on strengthening EU-Turkey ties and the importance of maintaining good neighbourly relations. She added that the discussions also covered Russia's war against Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East and preparations for the upcoming NATO summit.
Kos wrote on X that the European Union aims to expand trade and investment with Turkey while reinforcing transport, energy and digital links connecting Europe and Asia. "At a time of growing turbulence, close cooperation between the EU and Turkey can bring greater predictability and advance regional stability," Kos added.
Russia Rejects Turkey's Ceasefire Proposal During Fidan's Moscow Visit
Russia rejected a Turkish proposal earlier this month to declare a ceasefire and reopen negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv, Middle East Eye reported, citing several sources.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan presented the idea to his Russian counterparts during a visit to Moscow on 16-17 June, Russian and Ukrainian sources familiar with the talks stated.
"Fidan told his counterparts that there should be at least some broad idea of how to return to negotiations, and a window for a ceasefire," one Russian source said. "However, Moscow politely refused to discuss the idea."
Moscow remains firm that Kyiv's recognition of Russia's annexation of the Donbas provincial borders in eastern Ukraine is a prerequisite for any durable agreement, the report added.
Turkey, Iraq hold talks on Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline ahead of expiry
Turkey's Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on July 1 he met senior Iraqi oil and foreign ministry officials in Ankara to discuss energy cooperation, including the Iraq-Turkey crude oil pipeline from Kirkuk to Ceyhan, which is due to expire on July 27.
The Iraqi delegation included Deputy Foreign Minister Hussein Bahr Al-Uloom, Deputy Oil Minister Naser Azez Jabbar and Iraq's ambassador to Ankara, Majid Al-Lachmawi.
Bayraktar stated that Turkey aims to cooperate closely with the new Iraqi government to make more effective use of existing energy infrastructure and to support it with new connections.
The two sides agreed to continue technical and legal work and are expected to sign an executive protocol to ensure the continuation of Iraqi oil exports, including crude from the Kurdistan Region, Iraq’s Foreign Ministry announced.
Turkish VP Yilmaz Attends Funeral for Khamenei, Offers Condolences
Turkish Vice-President Cevdet Yilmaz and representatives from several conservative parties, including New Welfare Party leader Fatih Erbakan, attended a state funeral in Tehran on July 3 for Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Khamenei was killed in U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in February at the outset of the Middle East war. Before the ceremony, Yilmaz met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at Saadabad Palace and offered condolences for Khamenei and others killed in the attacks.
Yilmaz stated Turkey would continue to support efforts to strengthen diplomatic channels and to turn a recent U.S.-Iran memorandum into lasting peace.
Somalia Says Turkish F-16s Took Part in Strikes on Al-Shabaab
Somalia's Defense Ministry has reported that Turkish F-16 fighter jets were used in airstrikes on Al-Shabaab targets in the Lower Shabelle region, the clearest public acknowledgment that Turkish warplanes are participating in combat operations in Somalia.
The ministry said Somali forces, working alongside the Turkish Armed Forces, struck sites in the Godey area on June 30, targeting caves, weapons storage areas and hideouts used by Al-Shabaab.
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