ANALYSIS
"What Trump's Embrace of Erdoğan Buys, and What It Costs" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
The NATO summit held in Ankara on July 7 and 8 produced few surprises. By the standards of the alliance in its current condition, a summit that ends without a scandal counts as a success, and Ankara delivered one. The summit also marked a high point in Turkish-American relations, one built less on institutions than on the personal chemistry between Donald Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. That harmony delivered tangible gains for Ankara. It also carries costs that were far less visible amid the glamorous ceremony.
The Ankara summit thus served the Turkish government on every level. To the world, it showcased Turkey's growing indispensability within the alliance. To the domestic audience, the imagery of Western leaders gathered in the capital signaled that Erdoğan enjoys their full backing. This makes the Turkish opposition more desperate in its endeavor for survival under heavy pressure.
"As Iran fades, Turkey emerges as Israel's biggest strategic threat" by Herb Keinon, The Jerusalem Post
Netanyahu’s campaign against selling F-35s to Ankara reflects a growing conviction in Jerusalem that Turkey is shaping up to be Israel’s principal long-term challenge. If Iran’s decline is creating a regional vacuum, Israel fears Turkey is positioning itself to fill it, and that American F-35s, coupled with Trump’s embrace of Erdogan, might help it do so.
If Netanyahu is right that the Middle East is entering a post-Iran era, then stopping the F-35 sale is not the end of the story. It is merely the opening battle in what could become Israel’s defining strategic competition over the next decade.
“This is the NATO summit of reactionary nationalism” by Hannah Lucinda Smith, The New Statesman
Even in the democracies of western Europe, illiberal populists are rising in the polls. Erdogan’s Turkey no longer looks like an anomaly; he’s more an early model of how other countries are now evolving. And within Nato, which is locked in multiple hot and hybrid wars with Russia, pragmatism now overrides values.
For many years, Western leaders would publicly criticise Erdogan for his jailing of journalists and dissidents and disdain for democratic liberalism. At Nato and EU summits a decade ago, his counterparts flinched from shaking his hand. But back then, Trump was new on the scene, Brexit was yet to play out, and Erdogan was just entering his autocrat era. Now we are years into Trump’s new world, and Europe knows it has few other places to turn than Turkey. When Nato’s assembled leaders pose for the Alliance’s family photo this week, they greet Erdogan like one of their own.
POLITICS
Ozel Reveals CHP’s Three-Phase Roadmap for Elections
CHP's removed Chairman Ozgur Ozel said the party’s leadership has begun preparations for a possible new political party, while stressing that its immediate priority remains regaining control of the CHP amid an internal dispute.
In an interview with Nefes newspaper, Ozel addressed claims of a new party, the ongoing process within the CHP, and possible election scenarios.
In response to CHP lawmaker Suleyman Bulbul’s claim that “they are forming a new party with 100 MPs after July 20,” Ozel said the party had not made a final decision tied to that date. “Our priority is to regain control of the CHP,” Ozel said, adding that the leadership does not plan to join an existing party.
Ozel also outlined a contingency plan for a possible early or snap election. Under that plan, CHP figures would take over a political party that already qualifies to enter elections, or stands close to securing that eligibility.
A former CHP lawmaker would lead the party, while former MPs and executives who do not plan to return to active politics would take roles in its management. Ozel said the CHP would keep the party ready only as a precaution, allowing it to submit a candidate list to the Supreme Election Board if authorities call a snap election.
Ankara District Mayor Detained in Bribery Probe
Turkish prosecutors ordered the detention of 36 people, including the mayor of Ankara’s opposition-run Cankaya district, as part of an investigation into alleged bribery and tender rigging, the Ankara chief prosecutor’s office said. Authorities detained 27 suspects and continued searches for the others, the prosecutor’s office said in a statement.
Huseyin Can Guner, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) mayor of Cankaya, said in a post on X that he had informed authorities of his whereabouts and provided a spare key to his home for officers conducting a search. Guner said he was travelling back to Ankara. Authorities detained him at the airport in Ankara later in the day.
Prosecutors Detain Istanbul CHP Council Official Over July 15 Remarks
Istanbul prosecutors opened an investigation into CHP council officials Gencay Ozcan and Nazife Aktas after allegations that they described the July 15 coup attempt as “theater” during a commemoration at the Bahcelievler Municipal Council for those killed in the failed putsch.
Ozcan serves as CHP group deputy chairman in the Bahcelievler Municipal Council and as second deputy chairman of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Council.
The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office said it launched the probe into Ozcan and Aktas on charges of inciting public hatred and hostility.
Police questioned Ozcan at the Istanbul Police Department on the morning of July 11 and detained him at the prosecutor’s request.
Ozcan was later released under judicial supervision, with a travel ban imposed.
ECONOMY
IMF Cuts Turkey’s 2026 Growth Forecast to 2.9%
The International Monetary Fund cut its 2026 growth forecast for Turkey’s economy to 2.9% from 3.4% projected in April, marking its second downward revision this year. The IMF had lowered its 2026 forecast from 4.2% in its January outlook.
In its latest World Economic Outlook report, released on July 8, the fund forecast 3.6% growth for Turkey in 2027, slightly above the 3.5% estimate it published in April.
S&P Dow Jones Flags Possible Cut to Turkey's Market Status
S&P Dow Jones Indices placed Turkey on a watchlist for a potential downgrade to frontier-market status, echoing a warning issued by MSCI Inc. two weeks earlier.
In a statement issued on July 7, the index provider cited market-accessibility challenges and structural concerns, including transparency around stock ownership and regulatory actions by Turkish authorities.
S&P DJI said it could apply special treatment to Turkish securities if conditions deteriorate further. It will review Turkey’s market classification in the nearest annual review cycle if authorities do not resolve the concerns within one calendar year.
Turkey, Iraq Near Deal to Keep Ceyhan Oil Pipeline Running
Turkey and Iraq expect to sign a one-year agreement within days to keep crude oil flowing through the pipeline linking northern Iraq to Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said.
Bayraktar held talks in Baghdad with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi and Oil Minister Basim Mohammed Khudhair al-Ibadi on July 9, focusing on expanded cooperation in oil and natural gas.
Bayraktar met Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi and Oil Minister Basim Mohammed Khudhair al-Ibadi in Baghdad on July 9 for talks focused on expanding cooperation in oil and natural gas.
“We have brought the agreement covering the next 12 months to the final stage,” Bayraktar told reporters after the talks. “We aim to sign it in the coming days and share it with the public.”
Turkey, Northern Cyprus Sign Gas Pipeline Deal
Turkey signed a memorandum of understanding with the Turkish Cypriot administration on July 10 to advance plans for a 97-km natural gas pipeline from its southern coast to northern Cyprus. The planned pipeline would run from Alanya on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast to northern Cyprus and supply natural gas to power plants that currently rely on liquid fuel.
Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz said at the signing ceremony that the project would include transmission pipelines, receiving terminals and auxiliary facilities needed to provide northern Cyprus with access to natural gas.
Turkey aims to complete engineering work by the end of 2026 and bring the pipeline into operation in 2028.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Prison Population Exceeds Capacity by 122,000
Turkey’s prison population has risen above 427,000, surpassing official capacity by more than 122,000 people and driving occupancy to about 140%, Justice Ministry data showed.
As of July 1, Turkey held 427,525 pretrial detainees and convicted prisoners in facilities designed for 304,956 people. The total included 363,620 convicted prisoners and 63,905 pretrial detainees.
Of the convicted prisoners, 345,605 are men, 16,643 are women, and 1,372 are children.
Turkey’s ROKETSAN Buys Seized Assan Group for $471 Million
Turkey’s state-owned missile producer ROKETSAN bought the seized defence contractor Assan Group for $471 million in an auction run by the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF), exceeding the fund’s $416.5 million valuation.
ROKETSAN placed the only bid in the auction held by the TMSF at its headquarters in Istanbul’s Esentepe district. The sale covers all of Assan Group's commercial and economic assets.
Turkish authorities seized Assan Group in August 2025 over alleged links to the Gulen movement and accusations of military espionage. Court-appointed trustees have managed the company since then.
FOREIGN POLICY
Russia Open to Turkey Selling S-400 Systems to UAE
Russia views a potential Turkish sale of its S-400 air defence systems to the United Arab Emirates positively, though Moscow and Ankara have not completed negotiations, Middle East Eye reported, citing multiple sources familiar with the matter.
Russian and Turkish sources told the outlet that talks over a possible resale of the Russian-made systems to the UAE have continued for months. The sources added that Russia would still need to approve the transfer under the terms of its original agreement with Ankara.
The Kremlin confirmed on July 10 that it had discussed a potential sale of the systems to a third country with Turkey. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the issue highly sensitive and said consultations would continue.
Trump Pledges to Lift Turkey Sanctions, Signals Openness on F-35 Sale
President Donald Trump said on July 7 that the United States would lift sanctions on Turkey over its purchase of Russian missile defenses and signaled he could support a sale of F-35 fighter jets to the NATO ally.
Trump made the remarks during his first visit to Turkey by a U.S. president in 11 years. President Tayyip Erdogan welcomed him at Ankara airport with a lavish state ceremony, where mounted Turkish soldiers escorted Trump’s motorcade to the presidential palace.
“We’re going to be taking the sanctions off,” Trump told reporters before talks with Erdogan. “It’s time. We don’t want to sanction friends.” Trump said the Secretary of State and the Treasury Secretary were working on the matter.
He also said Washington could consider allowing Turkey to purchase F-35 stealth fighter jets, despite opposition in the U.S. Congress. “It’s certainly something we will consider,” Trump said, without outlining how Washington could structure such a deal.
“We have discussed this before with the U.S. and were promised five jets,” Erdogan said. “I know that Mr. Trump always keeps his promises.”
The same day, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that a U.S. sale of F-35 jets to Turkey would destroy the balance of power in the Middle East. “It would destroy the power balance in the Middle East, because Turkey, I think, has aggressive aspirations,” Netanyahu told CNN. “When you give them that power, you’re going to see aggression in its wake.”
On July 8, Trump said he had not made a final decision on whether to allow Turkey to buy F-35 fighter jets but said he leaned toward approving the sale. “I haven’t totally made up my mind, but my inclination is to say, look, he’s done everything, he’s helped us in so many different ways,” Trump said at a news conference at the end of the NATO summit.
NATO Allies Ink $50 Billion Arms Deal in Turkey
NATO leaders signed arms and defence commitments worth more than $100 billion in Turkey on July 7, seeking to show they had answered U.S. demands for higher European military spending, even as U.S. President Donald Trump sharply criticised the Alliance.
Trump, speaking during a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said he might have skipped the NATO summit had it not been for his warm relations with the Turkish leader. He also declined to rule out further U.S. troop withdrawals from Europe.
Trump renewed his call for the United States to take control of Greenland from Denmark, saying: “That should be controlled by the United States, not by Denmark.”
Before Trump arrived, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte used a defence industry forum to praise a wave of initiatives and contracts and called for a defence industry “revolution” across the Alliance.
A NATO official said the deals totalled at least $50 billion. They include European purchases of surveillance drones from U.S. firm Northrop Grumman and NATO purchases of aircraft from Sweden’s Saab.
The British government separately said 12 European countries, including the UK, France and Germany, would spend more than $50 billion over the next decade to develop long-range precision weapons to strengthen NATO’s defence capabilities.
Erdogan Urges NATO Allies to Lift Defence Industry Restrictions
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan urged NATO allies on July 8 to lift restrictions on defence cooperation among alliance members, saying such curbs weakened collective security. “Restrictions among allies on defence cooperation, especially in the defence industry, must be lifted,” Erdogan told NATO leaders at the opening of a summit in Ankara.
Erdogan said Turkey had taken steps to raise its defence spending to 3.5% of gross domestic product before 2030 and aimed to meet NATO’s broader 5% defence spending target by 2030, five years ahead of the Alliance’s 2035 deadline.
He said Ankara had also allocated an additional $24 billion for its “Steel Dome” air defence project, which Turkey says will strengthen NATO’s air and missile defence capabilities.
Turkey Pledges Ukraine Defense Support Under PURL Initiative
Turkey pledged to support Ukraine’s defense needs under the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List, or PURL, during the NATO Summit in Ankara,
President Tayyip Erdogan said on July 8 that Ankara would continue supplying military aid to Ukraine from Turkey’s national stockpiles while also joining the PURL initiative, a mechanism that allows partner countries to finance weapons purchases for Kyiv.
“While supporting Ukraine, we are also using our communication channels in such a way as to guide Russia toward peace,” Erdogan added.
Turkey Weighs Entry into Canada-Led Global Defence Bank
Turkey continues to assess whether to join a proposed Canada-based defence financing bank after initially backing the initiative at a NATO summit this week, defence ministry sources said.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on July 7 that nine countries, including Turkey, had committed to support the proposed Defence, Security and Resilience Bank, or DSRB. The bank aims to raise 100 billion pounds ($134 billion) in low-cost financing to strengthen defence capabilities among allied nations.
Carney said Albania, Belgium, Greece, Latvia, Luxembourg, Romania, Turkey and Ukraine had pledged support for the bank, which Canada plans to host. Ottawa has asked participating countries to secure domestic ratification and aims to launch the institution in 2027.
Turkey reportedly decided on July 10 not to commit to joining the initiative at this stage, following consultations with its Defence Ministry, Foreign Ministry, Treasury and Finance Ministry, and the Presidency of Defence Industries. Ankara gave no reason for the decision.
A day later, Reuters reported, citing defence ministry sources, that Turkey was still evaluating possible participation in the DSRB. The sources said Ankara had closely followed and participated in negotiations in Montreal before the bank’s launch, and had joined the declaration announcing the initiative on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara.
Canada, Turkey Launch Free-Trade Talks
Canada and Turkey have formally launched negotiations for a free-trade agreement, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s office said after he met Turkish President Erdogan on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Ankara.
The leaders said they would pursue what Carney’s office described as a “comprehensive, modern and mutually beneficial” agreement between the two countries.
Technical teams from Canada and Turkey will now define the agreement’s scope and ambitions and prepare for the first round of negotiations in the coming months, the statement said.
France Opens Door to SAMP/T Air Defence Sale to Turkey
France has opened the door to selling the Franco-Italian SAMP/T air defence system to Turkey after years of blocking the deal, five sources familiar with the matter told Reuters, clearing the way for serious negotiations with Ankara.
Four sources said the policy shift followed talks between French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at a summit on June 25, just ahead of the NATO Summit in Ankara. The sources cautioned that talks remain in early stages.
Paris has set aside some political objections that had previously stalled progress, though reservations remain, the sources said.
One source said Meloni and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan discussed the issue in a phone call on July 3. The sources stressed, however, that France’s new flexibility did not amount to a final approval for the sale.
Macron said on July 8 that France, Italy and Turkey continued technical work on a possible export of the SAMP/T system to Ankara. “We have work underway on a Franco-Italian basis, along with Turkey, which is technical work and which is continuing,” Macron told reporters at the end of NATO’s annual summit.
Erdogan, Starmer Sign New UK-Turkey Security Partnership at NATO Summit
Turkish President Erdogan and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer signed a new Security and Defence Partnership on July 8 during the NATO Summit in Ankara, pledging closer defence cooperation and stronger ties with the Alliance.
The two leaders met behind closed doors on the final day of the two-day summit, as Starmer prepared to leave office after announcing last month that he intended to resign.
A joint statement said the agreement reaffirmed the United Kingdom and Turkey’s “deep commitment” to each other’s defence and to NATO. It said the partnership would allow the two countries to strengthen cooperation by deepening consultations through new mechanisms.
Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria Expand Black Sea Mine Force Mission
Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria agreed to expand the mandate of their joint Black Sea mine-clearing task force to protect critical infrastructure, including energy and telecommunications assets and undersea pipelines. The three NATO members reached the agreement during the Alliance’s summit in Ankara.
They formed the task force in 2024 to address the growing threat from drifting sea mines following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Turkey Dismisses European Parliament Resolution on Cyprus as 'Null and Void'
Turkey rejected a European Parliament resolution that accuses it of violating international law during the 1974 Cyprus conflict, calling it "null and void" and denouncing what it called baseless allegations against its armed forces.
The parliament adopted the non-binding resolution on July 8 by 575 votes to 33, with 43 abstentions. The text includes allegations of sexual violence against Greek Cypriot women and girls during the 1974 conflict, calls for compensation for victims, and demands the immediate withdrawal of Turkish troops from northern Cyprus.
The self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) Foreign Ministry condemned the resolution, accusing the European Parliament of distorting the events surrounding Turkey's 1974 military operation and of unfairly targeting both Turkey and the Turkish Cypriot people.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry said in a statement on July 9 that the resolution contained "baseless and preposterous allegations against the heroic Turkish Armed Forces." The ministry also voiced full support for the statement issued by the TRNC.
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