ANALYSIS
"A Mediterranean NATO in the Making: The Israel-Greece-Cyprus Axis" by Rameen Siddiqui, Modern Diplomacy
The strengthened military bloc represents a significant geopolitical realignment in the eastern Mediterranean, creating a pro-Western, Israel-anchored security architecture explicitly aimed at containing Turkish influence.
The inclusion of Cyprus deepens Israel’s strategic depth and complicates Turkey’s regional calculations, especially regarding energy exploration and naval access. Turkey is likely to respond with increased naval patrols, military exercises, or diplomatic pressure, raising the risk of accidental escalation in the Aegean or eastern Mediterranean.
"Israel’s Somaliland play against Turkiye doomed to fail" by Dr. Sinem Cengiz, Arab News
Israel’s recognition of Somaliland poses a direct threat not only to Somalia’s sovereignty and unity but also to Turkish interests and investments in the country. The timing of the move appears linked to Israel’s broader strategy of challenging Turkiye on multiple fronts, from Gaza to Syria, as well as its long-term political and economic interests.
However, as has often been the case, Israel is pursuing a highly controversial policy that risks destabilizing an already-fragile region and deepening divisions in a country that has suffered from fragmentation for decades. Rather than contributing to security, this misguided decision threatens to open a Pandora’s box in the Horn of Africa, creating fertile ground for further instability, terrorist activity and disruptions to maritime security in the Red Sea. Any policy that threatens the security of a nation is, as always, doomed to fail.
POLITICS
Ocalan urges implementation of 10 March SDF–Damascus deal
Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), has called for the implementation of a March 10 agreement that envisages integrating the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into Syria’s state institutions, describing the move as critical to preventing renewed conflict in Syria and advancing peace in Turkey.
In a New Year’s message released through Turkey’s Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) on December 30, Ocalan said carrying out the March 10 accord “will ease and accelerate the process” in Syria. He urged Turkey to adopt a “facilitating, constructive, and dialogue-oriented” role in the process.
Turkish appeals court orders retrial over CHP congresses
A Turkish regional appeals court has overturned a lower court’s decision to dismiss a lawsuit seeking to annul the main opposition Republican People’s Party’s (CHP) recent congresses, ordering a retrial on procedural grounds.
The 4th Civil Chamber of the Ankara Regional Court of Justice annulled the rulings of the Ankara 3rd Civil Court of First Instance concerning the CHP’s 38th Ordinary Congress, held in November 2023, and the Istanbul Provincial Congress, held in October 2023. The chamber found that the lower court violated the “right to be heard” by disregarding a valid medical excuse submitted by the plaintiff’s lawyer.
The appeals court also concluded that the lower court erred by issuing its verdict before the legal deadline for submitting evidence had passed. It returned the case file to the court of first instance for a new trial.
ECONOMY
Turkish banking sector loan volume surges in 2025
Weekly data from the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK) showed that loan volumes in Turkey’s banking sector rose sharply in the final week of 2025 compared to the same period a year earlier.
The combined total of consumer loans and individual credit card debt climbed from about 3.8 trillion lira to 5.5 trillion lira in the last week of 2025, an annual increase of roughly 45 percent.
Commercial and other loans also continued to grow. These loans expanded by about 43 percent year-on-year, rising from around 12 trillion lira to more than 17.3 trillion lira.
Non-performing loans (NPLs) in the banking system almost doubled over the same period. NPLs increased by approximately 95 percent, from around 287.5 billion lira at the end of 2024 to more than 578 billion lira in the final weeks of 2025.
Woodside signs long-term LNG supply deal with Turkey’s BOTAS
Australia’s Woodside Energy announced on December 29 that it has signed a supply agreement with Turkish state-owned petroleum company BOTAS to deliver about 5.8 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas over up to nine years starting in 2030. The agreement converts a non-binding heads of agreement that the two sides signed in September into a binding contract.
Woodside said the LNG will be sourced mainly from its under-construction Louisiana LNG project in the United States, with additional volumes supplied from its wider global portfolio.
Turkey and Spain sign 2.6 billion euro deal for training jets
Turkey and Spain have signed a 2.6-billion-euro ($3.06 billion) agreement for the Spanish air force to acquire 30 light training jets from Turkish Aerospace Industries starting in 2028, Turkey's defence industry authority announced on December 30.
The deal covers exports of the HURJET aircraft, an integrated training architecture, maintenance infrastructure, and long-term operational support.
Haluk Gorgun, chairman of Turkey's Defence Industry Agency, said the accord will pave the way for deeper defence industry cooperation between NATO allies Turkey and Spain.
Ziraat Bank seeks to launch operations in Syria
Turkish state lender Ziraat Bank has expressed interest in launching banking operations in Syria, according to Chief Executive Alpaslan Cakar in a statement to Reuters on December 31.
Cakar said the bank notified the Central Bank of Syria of its intention and is currently monitoring the process alongside relevant authorities. He also noted that Ziraat is holding discussions with Syrian banks to strengthen correspondent banking relationships and establish potential collaborations.
Saipem wins $425 million contract for next phase of offshore gas field
Italian engineering group Saipem has secured a $425 million contract to advance development of Turkey’s largest offshore natural gas field.
The contract, awarded by Turkish Petroleum OTC, covers the third phase of the Sakarya gas field project. It includes the construction of three additional pipelines totaling about 153 kilometers in length, along with associated subsea structures.
These new pipelines will connect the recently discovered Goktepe gas reserve to Sakarya’s phase 3 facilities, Saipem said in a statement.
Turkish central bank sets 2026 monetary policy roadmap
The Turkish Central Bank has released its 2026 Monetary Policy document, setting out its policy roadmap for the coming year.
According to the document, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will convene eight times in 2026: January 22, March 12, April 22, June 11, July 23, September 10, October 22, and December 10. Over the year, the bank will publish four Inflation Reports and two Financial Stability Reports.
The Central Bank reaffirmed its 5% inflation target, emphasizing that price stability is essential for sustainable growth and social welfare. It also kept its uncertainty band unchanged at plus or minus two percentage points around the target.
HUMAN RIGHTS
At least 391 women killed by men in Turkey in 2025
At least 391 women were killed by men in Turkey in 2025, according to a report released on January 1 by the Turkish Federation of Women’s Associations (TKDF). The report identified 297 of the deaths as confirmed femicides and classified 94 as suspicious.
The data showed that 253 women were killed in their homes and 69 in public spaces. Firearms were the most frequently used weapon, involved in 203 of the killings.
The report found that perpetrators were most often men known to the victims. At least 137 women were killed by family members and 59 by former spouses or partners.
Istanbul recorded the highest number of killings, followed by Diyarbakir, Izmir, Antalya, Ankara, and Adana.
Turkish Lawyer Held in Mozambique Denied Access to Counsel
Emre Cinar, a Turkish lawyer detained in Mozambique after an extradition request from Turkish authorities over alleged links to the Gulen movement, has been denied access to his attorneys and family since his arrest, a human rights group reported on December 31.
Human rights organizations have warned that Cinar could face persecution if extradited to Turkey and have urged Mozambican authorities and international bodies to intervene.
FOREIGN POLICY
Ozel accuses Erdogan of silence over Trump operation in Venezuela
Turkey’s main opposition leader Ozgur Ozel accused President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of remaining silent out of fear after former US President Donald Trump announced a US-led military operation on January 3 that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife.
Erdogan addressed the “Announcement of 2025 Export Figures” event at the Istanbul Congress Center on the same day. In a speech lasting around 30 minutes, he did not comment on the developments in Venezuela.
Turkish presidential adviser Cemil Ertem, a senior economic aide to President Erdogan, deleted a social media post on X the same day he shared it. In the post, he had expressed support for Venezuela and President Nicolas Maduro following U.S. airstrikes on Caracas.
Ozel said Erdogan “could not say one word” about what he described as “Trump’s coup in Venezuela” and Maduro’s removal from the country. He portrayed the Turkish president as a politician who “fears Trump” and “looks for legitimacy” in the Oval Office.
The Turkish foreign ministry, in a written statement issued on January 3, said it was closely monitoring the situation in Venezuela. The ministry said Turkey attaches importance to Venezuela’s stability and the well-being of the Venezuelan people.
Speaking to a television channel, Devlet Bahceli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), commented on recent developments in Venezuela, saying: “The U.S. military intervention in Venezuela, aimed at illegally and unjustly removing President Maduro from power, is a known and familiar conspiracy.”
Bahceli claimed that the planned attack on President Erdogan in Marmaris during the July 15, 2016 coup attempt and the U.S. operation targeting Maduro are identical in nature.
Speaking to ANKA News Agency, Freddy Eduardo Molina Gutierrez, Venezuela’s ambassador to Turkey, said that Maduro was forcibly removed from the country by U.S. forces, rejected any negotiations with Washington, and called on Turkey to issue an official condemnation. He dismissed reports claiming the Venezuelan leader departed following negotiations with the United States.
Erdogan to hold phone call with Trump on Ukraine and Gaza
Turkish President Erdogan said he will hold a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump on January 5 to discuss peace initiatives between Ukraine and Russia, as well as developments related to Gaza.
Speaking to reporters in Istanbul on January 2, Erdogan also announced that Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan will attend a meeting of the “Coalition of the Willing,” a group of countries supporting Ukraine, in Paris in the coming days.
Trump says U.S. considering F-35 fighter jet sale to Turkey
U.S. President Donald Trump said on December 29 that Washington is considering selling top-end F-35 fighter jets to Turkey.
“We’re thinking about it very seriously,” Trump said when asked about a possible F-35 deal for Turkey during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the U.S. president’s club in Florida.
Addressing questions about potential tensions between Turkey and Israel, Trump described President Erdogan as “a very good friend” and downplayed the risk of confrontation. “We’re not going to have a problem,” he said. “Nothing’s going to happen.”
Israel says its technology will be excluded from Turkish F-35s
In an interview with the Greek newspaper Kathimerini, Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Sharren Haskel said Israel opposes any possible agreement between Ankara and Washington regarding Turkey's planned purchase of F-35 fighter jets.
Haskel stressed that much of the advanced technology used in the F-35 originates from Israel and said this technology “will not be included in the F-35s that Turkey will acquire.”
She also commented on trilateral cooperation among Greece, Cyprus, and Israel, noting that the parties have decided to move forward with the first phase of an electricity interconnection project between Israel and Cyprus.
“We are not waiting for the processes between Greece and Cyprus to be fully clarified,” Haskel said. “As Israel, we are taking responsibility and preparing for the implementation of the agreement.”
Greece, Israel, and Cyprus to expand joint drills in eastern Mediterranean
Greece, Israel, and Cyprus will intensify joint air and naval exercises in the eastern Mediterranean in 2026, further deepening their defence cooperation, Reuters reported on December 29, citing Greek military officials and a senior source.
Greece’s armed forces general staff (GEETHA) announced that senior military officials from the three countries signed a joint action plan for defence cooperation last week in Cyprus.
A senior Greek official familiar with the agreement said the military deal will include joint naval and air exercises, as well as the transfer of know-how from Israel to Greece and Cyprus to address both “asymmetrical” and “symmetrical” threats.
Turkey eyes offshore energy exploration deal with Syria in 2026
Turkey plans to pursue an offshore energy exploration agreement with Syria in 2026 and may carry out seismic surveys off the Syrian coast to evaluate potential resources, Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said.
Turkey and Syria signed a framework agreement on energy cooperation earlier in 2025.
Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar stated in an interview that Ankara and Damascus aim to conclude a more detailed accord in 2026. He noted that Turkey could launch seismic research once a deal is finalized.
Turkish President, Saudi Crown Prince discuss deeper ties and regional stability
Turkish President Erdogan told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in a January 4 phone call that he aims to further deepen cooperation between Turkey and Saudi Arabia through new steps.
Erdogan said preserving the territorial integrity of Somalia and Yemen is vital for regional stability. He also stated that Ankara stands ready to contribute to efforts to bring the opposing parties together in Yemen to facilitate a resolution.
Erdogan, Somali president meet in Istanbul after Israel recognizes Somaliland
Turkish President Erdogan met his Somali counterpart Hassan Sheikh Mohamud on December 30 in Istanbul, following Israel’s recognition of the breakaway state of Somaliland.
Erdogan hosted Mohamud with an official ceremony at the Presidential Dolmabahce Office, according to official sources. The two leaders first held a one-on-one meeting, then chaired talks between their delegations at the same venue.
Speaking at a joint news conference, Erdogan condemned Israel’s move to recognize Somaliland as “illegitimate and unacceptable.” He highlighted that preserving Somalia’s unity and integrity under all circumstances is a priority for Turkey.
Turkey to send drilling vessel to Somalia for first overseas deepwater exploration
Turkey will send a drilling vessel to Somalia in February to conduct the country’s first deepwater exploration project abroad, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on December 31.
Bayraktar stated that the operation, to be carried out with the Cagri Bey vessel, will focus on offshore areas in Somali waters.
Turkey starts construction of planned spaceport in Somalia
Turkey has completed feasibility studies and design work for a spaceport it intends to build in Somalia and has begun the first phase of construction, Industry and Technology Minister Mehmet Fatih Kacir announced on December 31.
Kacir made the announcement after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan referred to the project during a joint press conference in Istanbul with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
He said feasibility studies identified Somalia as the most suitable location due to its proximity to the equator, which can reduce fuel requirements and increase payload capacity for certain launches.
Turkish foreign minister discusses Yemen with Saudi and UAE counterparts
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan held phone calls on January 2 with his Saudi and United Arab Emirates counterparts, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud and Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, to discuss the latest developments in Yemen, Turkish diplomatic sources said.
Earlier this week, Saudi Arabia accused the UAE of “pushing STC forces to carry out military operations” along the kingdom’s southern border in Hadhramaut and Mahra. Abu Dhabi has denied the allegation.
Turkey grants visa-free entry to Chinese citizens
Turkey will allow Chinese citizens to enter the country visa-free starting January 2, under a unilateral decision to boost tourism. According to a decree published in the Official Gazette on December 31, holders of ordinary Chinese passports may travel to Turkey visa-free for tourism and transit for up to 90 days within any 180-day period.
The decision does not apply reciprocally, as Turkish citizens still require visas to travel to China.
Turkey and Armenia to ease visa rules for official passport holders
Turkey and Armenia will simplify visa procedures for holders of diplomatic, service, and special passports by allowing them to apply for a free e-visa online starting January 1, 2026, Turkey’s foreign ministry announced on December 29.
The ministry stated that the two nations reached this decision during talks led by their special representatives as part of the normalization process aimed at restoring ties.
Britain to analyze black box from plane crash killing head of Libya’s army
Libya has announced that Britain has agreed to examine the flight recorder from a plane crash in Turkey on December 23 that killed the head of Libya’s army and members of his delegation.
Transport Minister Mohamed al-Chahoubi told a press conference in Tripoli that Libya coordinated directly with Britain on the analysis. He said Britain approved the request in coordination with Libya’s transport ministry and Turkish authorities.
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