"What Comes Next in the U.S./Israel–Iran Conflict? Mapping the Escalation Trajectory" by Mehmet Akif Koc, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
What makes the current trajectory dangerous is not only the scale of the conflict but also its open-endedness. Each previous phase has normalized a higher level of violence, narrowing the space for negotiation while increasing the likelihood of miscalculation.
Against this backdrop, the most plausible near-term trajectory involves a fourth phase centered on hybrid warfare — cyberattacks, covert operations, and proxy wars — emerging in the coming months. Should that prove insufficient, further rounds of direct conflict are likely to follow — each more dangerous for regional stability than the last.
"Why Turkey will be a key regional powerbroker after Iran war" by Taha Ozhan, Middle East Eye
Turkey enters this moment as the region’s most capable state actor: militarily experienced and diplomatically engaged across multiple fronts. But capacity alone does not guarantee stability. Ankara needs to pursue an assertive strategy aimed not at domination, but at equilibrium: preventing territorial expansionism, limiting proxy warfare, and reinforcing state sovereignty where possible.
In that emerging order, Turkey will not be a bystander. It has a chance to be a decisive factor. Whether the Middle East moves towards stabilisation or renewed fragmentation will depend in no small measure on how Ankara chooses to wield its influence.
"Amid the mayhem: Three steps for the EU and Turkey to protect their interests" by Maria Simeonova and Angela Ziccardi, The European Council on Foreign Relations
1. Operationalise Black Sea cooperation: Ankara is determined to lead a naval security mission in the Black Sea as part of broader security guarantees for Ukraine. The EU could complement this effort by providing additional intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets within a shared framework, particularly as it plans to establish a maritime security hub as part of its strategic approach to the Black Sea region.
2. Institutionalise coordination in the South Caucasus: Rather than pursue parallel diplomatic tracks, the EU and Turkey should create a structured platform for joint engagement on conflict resolution and infrastructure protection. Such cooperation could help stabilise the region while reducing Russia’s leverage. It could also help them compete with Chinese infrastructure investments in emerging trade corridors, such as the Middle Corridor.
3. Back Turkey’s efforts on the Iran war: The economic and energy repercussions for both Europe and Turkey should lead the EU to provide tangible backing to these efforts, including regular diplomatic coordination and aligned messaging on de-escalation.
"The illusion of a substitute: Turkey is not the region’s replacement for Iran" by Karam Nama, Middle East Monitor
Iran exercises influence as a revolutionary system that operates beyond the boundaries of the state. Despite its growing regional activism, Turkey still largely behaves as a nation-state seeking strategic leverage rather than ideological expansion.
Iran has historically grown its influence by exploiting institutional vacuums within fragile states, such as the erosion of state authority in Lebanon, the fragmentation of sovereignty in Iraq, the collapse of the balance of power in Syria, and the political divisions in Yemen. Its strategy has often depended on embedding loyal armed networks within weakened political systems.
However, Turkey tends to operate in environments where state institutions — armies, bureaucracies and political systems — still function. Its influence is therefore constrained by international diplomacy, regional power balances and the limits of conventional statecraft.
Erdogan Rejects CHP Call for By-Elections, Ozel Renews His Call
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on April 6 that his government had no plans for early or by-elections, rejecting a call from main opposition CHP leader Ozgur Ozel for a new vote. Speaking after a cabinet meeting, Erdogan said his administration remained focused on its own priorities and would not be drawn into what he described as artificial political debates.
"Our government is in control of its agenda. No one can impose an agenda on us. No one can divert Turkey's agenda with artificial debates," he said, adding that neither the government nor the public had early or by-elections in their near-term political plans.
Ozel renewed his call for by-elections at his party's parliamentary group meeting on April 7, saying that past political leaders, including Bulent Ecevit, Suleyman Demirel, and Necmettin Erbakan, had not avoided such votes since 1960. "But Erdogan will avoid this," he said.
Ozel also accused the ruling party of what he called a "bandit mentality," saying it was "quarrelling with the republic, its values, and the nation itself," and urged voters to hold the government accountable at the ballot box.
Ozel met party leaders and officials during the week to build support for his by-election demand.
Opposition Municipalities Targeted in Multiple Corruption Probes
Turkish authorities carried out a series of operations across several opposition-run districts, detaining dozens of officials in investigations into bribery, fraud, and permit irregularities.
In Uskudar, an opposition-run district in Istanbul, 21 suspects were detained in a probe into alleged irregularities in the issuance of building and occupancy permits. A judge later ordered the arrest of nine people, including Deputy Mayor Filiz Deveci and municipal company executive Nazim Akkoyunlu, while 10 others were released under judicial supervision.
In Yenisehir, a CHP-run district in Mersin, security forces took 31 people into custody, including deputy mayors, department heads, and company officials. The investigation focuses on alleged bribery and tender irregularities.
In Bolu, authorities detained Deputy Mayor Leyla Beykoz and city council member Aydan Ozdemir as part of an investigation that had already led to Mayor Tanju Ozcan's earlier jailing. A court formally arrested both Beykoz and Ozdemir. Although Mayor Ozcan and Ali Sariyildiz were also arrested on fraud charges, both were already in prison at the time of the new order.
In Bornova, a district in Izmir, Mayor Omer Eski and three others were detained in a separate investigation. While all four were sent to court with a request for their arrest, they were released under judicial supervision. Prosecutors later filed an objection to their release, but a court rejected the appeal.
Separately, CHP Ankara Provincial Chairman Umit Erkol was detained in Ankara on April 9 as part of an investigation into alleged "cooperative irregularities" carried out through İZBETON AŞ, a subsidiary of İzmir Metropolitan Municipality. Detention orders were issued for 10 people, including Erkol, and the Izmir Chief Public Prosecutor's Office said nine of them had been detained.
Nine suspects, including Erkol, were arrested on April 12 by the magistrates' court to which they were referred.
AK Party Takes Control of Bursa After CHP Mayor Removed
Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) took control of Bursa on April 9 after the city's CHP mayor was jailed on charges including leading a criminal organisation and corruption, and was later removed from office by the interior ministry.
In a vote by the city council to appoint a new mayor, the main opposition CHP did not field a candidate. Sahin Biba, the AK Party candidate and the only contender, was elected in the third round of voting.
MHP Dissolves Istanbul Branches, Appoints New Provincial Head
Turkey's far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) dissolved its entire Istanbul provincial organisation and all 39 district branches on April 6, appointing former Silivri mayor Volkan Yilmaz as the party's new Istanbul head.
The decision was announced by MHP Deputy Chairman Semih Yalcin, who said the move was made in line with the party's internal regulations. The restructuring removed all existing local leadership in Istanbul. Yalcin said Yilmaz had been appointed under the same provisions, without giving a reason for the sweeping overhaul.
Outgoing Istanbul provincial chairman Sertel Selim confirmed his dismissal in a social media post, pledging loyalty to MHP leader Devlet Bahceli and stating that his tenure ended on April 6.
Fitch Cuts Turkey Outlook to Stable on Reserve Drop, Iran Risks
Fitch Ratings revised Turkey's outlook to "stable" from "positive", citing a sharp erosion in foreign exchange reserves after heavy intervention to support the lira and rising risks linked to the Iran conflict. The agency affirmed Turkey's long-term foreign-currency rating at "BB-".
Fitch also pointed to persistent macroeconomic vulnerabilities, including high inflation, large external financing needs and weak reserve buffers, despite earlier improvements.
Turkish Central Bank Posts TL 1.06 Trillion Loss for 2025
Turkey's central bank posted a net loss of TL 1.06 trillion in 2025, according to its year-end balance sheet published in the Official Gazette on April 10, extending a run of heavy losses in recent years and underscoring the financial cost of recent economic policies.
The balance sheet, covering the period to December 31, 2025, showed total assets of TL 12.4 trillion. The bank's gold holdings stood at TL 4.82 trillion, while its reserve fund was TL 334 million.
Turkey Weighs Expanding Financial Center Incentives Nationwide
Turkey is working on plans to extend some of the business incentives offered at the Istanbul Financial Center to foreign companies across the country, as part of efforts to attract multinational firms and position itself as a regional business hub, Bloomberg reported.
The Treasury and Finance Ministry is preparing legislation to broaden these incentives, which are currently limited to companies operating within the Istanbul Financial Center, according to people familiar with the matter. The draft is expected to be submitted to parliament in the coming weeks, they said.
One of the key measures under consideration would expand a tax break nationwide, allowing eligible companies to deduct 50% of income earned from selling, or mediating the sale of, goods sourced abroad without bringing those goods into Turkey, the sources said.
Turkey approves 33 GW of battery capacity since 2022, report says
More than 33 gigawatts (GW) of battery storage capacity have been approved in Turkey since 2022, The Guardian reported, citing a recent report by climate think tank Ember, a figure that exceeds the total planned and operational capacity in early European adopters such as Germany and Italy.
According to the report, Turkey has approved 33 GW out of 221 GW in battery storage applications submitted so far, equivalent to 83% of its current wind and solar capacity.
Turkey is aiming to raise installed wind and solar capacity to 120 GW by 2035, up from about 40 GW today. But the 6.5 GW added last year was below the 8 GW annual pace needed to stay on track, the report said.
Ufuk Alparslan, an analyst at Ember and author of the report, said Turkey still faced several obstacles in turning the approved battery projects into reality, including permit bottlenecks and dependence on spot electricity market prices.
Number of Syrians under protection in Turkey falls sharply
The number of Syrians under temporary protection in Turkey has fallen by 1,440,801 since peaking at 3,737,369 in 2021, according to figures compiled by state-owned Anadolu Agency.
Between December 9, 2024 and April 2, 2026, some 650,046 Syrians returned to their country following the collapse of Syria's 61-year-old Ba'ath regime on December 8, 2024, the figures showed.
As of April 2, 2026, men accounted for 1,183,799 of those under temporary protection in Turkey, while women made up 1,112,769. Among Turkey's provinces, Istanbul hosted the largest number of Syrians under temporary protection, with 405,016, according to the data.
Masons Association Denies Reports of Trustee Request
Turkey's Free and Accepted Masons Association denied reports that a court petition had been filed seeking the appointment of a trustee, following the arrest of its president, Remzi Sanver, in October 2025 as part of the "Can Holding" investigation.
Media reports said Sanver, who was detained on Oct. 20, 2025, had been unable to effectively perform his duties since then, and that association member Ali Riza Aral had applied to a magistrates' court on April 1 to request a trustee because the general assembly could not be held within the timeframe set out in the association's bylaws.
In a written statement, the association stated that the reports were inaccurate and clarified that the petition concerned only a member's request to convene the general assembly due to an alleged vacancy in the presidency. It added that the application did not include any request for the appointment of a trustee, contrary to the media reports.
Turkey Detains Dozens in Raids Over Alleged Gulen Links
Turkish authorities detained 16 people in simultaneous house raids across 12 provinces centered in Ankara on April 7, including former public officials such as judges, prosecutors and tax inspectors who had previously been dismissed from state service.
The operations were carried out by teams from the Ankara Provincial Police Department under orders from the Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor's Office.
In a separate investigation, authorities detained 23 people, including business owners and tradespeople, in raids across four provinces over allegations they provided financial support to families linked to the Gulen movement.
The detentions, ordered by the Malatya Chief Public Prosecutor's Office, were conducted by counterterrorism police in operations centered in Malatya and extending to Istanbul, Tekirdag and Erzincan. After three days of questioning, courts jailed 10 suspects pending trial, while 13 others were released under judicial supervision.
Former Top Judge Criticizes Turkey's Judiciary System
Former Constitutional Court President Hasim Kilic said the court had adopted a "timid" stance and called for full implementation of rulings by the European Court of Human Rights, arguing that Turkey's judicial problems could no longer be postponed.
Speaking at a conference in Ankara, Kilic stated that freedom of expression had narrowed sharply over the past decade, describing a shift from earlier restrictions on religious expression to a broader climate in which people increasingly avoid voicing their views. "Society is now exercising the 'right to remain silent' instead of freedom of expression," he said.
Kilic also criticised the Constitutional Court for failing to enforce its own rulings against lower courts, warning that this had eroded trust in the judiciary and weakened its traditionally rights-based approach.
Erdogan Threatens Possible Action Against Israel
Turkish President Erdogan on April 12 accused Israel of committing atrocities in Palestine and Lebanon and said Turkey could consider military action, drawing a parallel with its past interventions in Karabakh and Libya.
Speaking at the International Asia Political Parties Conference in Istanbul, Erdogan described Israel's actions as "barbaric" and referred to what he said was a recently passed law approving death penalties for Palestinian prisoners.
Later, responding to reporters, Erdogan sharpened his rhetoric and suggested Ankara could take military steps against Israel. "There is nothing to prevent us from doing it. We just need to be strong so that we can take these steps," he said.
Israeli Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu condemned Erdogan's remarks, describing the Turkish president as a "megalomaniacal dictator" with "imperialist ambitions". In a social media post, Eliyahu also shared what appeared to be an AI-edited image showing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu planting an Israeli flag on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem while Erdogan was depicted bowing at Netanyahu's feet.
Turkey Urges Parties to Comply with U.S.-Iran Ceasefire
Turkey, on April 8, called on all sides to respect a two-week ceasefire agreed between the United States and Iran, with talks aimed at securing a broader peace deal due to begin in Islamabad on April 10. "We emphasise the necessity of the full implementation of the temporary ceasefire on the ground and express our expectation that all parties will adhere to the agreement reached," the foreign ministry said in a statement.
President Erdogan welcomed the ceasefire on April 8 but warned that possible provocations or sabotage could undermine the deal. Erdogan said he hoped the ceasefire would be fully implemented without any such disruptions.
Erdogan also told Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in a phone call on April 9 that upcoming talks between Iran and the United States should be used to secure lasting peace, his office said. He added that the negotiations expected in the coming days should be fully used to promote long-term regional stability.
Speaking alongside his Syrian counterpart in Ankara, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that the ceasefire should be extended beyond Iran to include Lebanon, which has faced intensified Israeli strikes. "We hope that the ceasefire will be fully implemented on the ground, including in Lebanon, and that the process will lead to lasting peace," Fidan said.
One Attacker Killed in Gun Battle Near Israeli Consulate in Istanbul
One attacker was killed, and two others were wounded in an extended gun battle with police outside the tower building housing the Israeli consulate in Istanbul on April 7. Two police officers were also lightly wounded, Istanbul Governor Davut Gul told reporters at the scene.
Interior Minister Mustafa Ciftci said the three attackers had links to an organization that "exploits religion," but did not identify the group. He added that two of the assailants were brothers who had traveled to the site in a rented car from the city of Izmit.
No Israeli staff were at the consulate, which occupies a floor in one of the towers, at the time of the attack, as diplomatic relations between Turkey and Israel have been effectively frozen since November 2023. Israel's foreign ministry said it appreciated the "swift action" of Turkish security forces in preventing the attack.
Turkish authorities detained 10 people in connection with the shooting. Those held include the two wounded assailants, who are being questioned in the hospital while receiving treatment. The other eight suspects were detained in operations in Istanbul and the nearby province of Kocaeli after the attack.
MHP deputy says he discussed Turkey-Russia-China alignment in Moscow
Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) Deputy Chairman and Samsun lawmaker Ilyas Topsakal said he held talks in Moscow following party leader Devlet Bahceli's call for Turkey to align with Russia and China against what he described as a U.S.-Israel coalition.
Bahceli first made the proposal public in a written statement on Sept. 18, 2025, saying the best response to what he called a U.S.-Israel "coalition of evil" would be an alliance between Turkey, Russia and China.
In remarks to the Russian daily Vedomosti, Topsakal said Bahceli had sent him to Moscow to convey the party's proposal to Russian political parties, bureaucrats and intellectuals.
Topsakal said he also sought to share his views with journalists in Moscow, adding that closer ties between the three countries could play a critical role not only in economic terms but also in security. "Turkey can play a role. At a time when global balances are shifting, Turkey needs to develop alternative partnerships," he said.
Turkey, Syria and Jordan Launch 'Modern Hejaz Railway' Project
Turkey, Syria and Jordan have initiated a project to build a "modern Hejaz Railway" that aims to eventually reach Saudi Arabia and Oman, Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu said.
Uraloglu announced that an agreement had been reached among the three countries during meetings in Amman, the Jordanian capital. Speaking during a visit to the historic Ottoman-era Hejaz Railway Station in Amman, he said the line is intended to create a strategic corridor from the Red Sea to Europe via the Mediterranean.
The minister said that activating road connections is the priority in the first phase, with the goal of transporting goods from Jordan through Syria to Turkey and onward to Europe and Central Asia. A ceremony was held in Amman to mark the initiative, with a Turkish truck departing for Europe.
The planned railway is intended to carry both freight and passengers, while the minister said it could also be considered for energy transportation in the future. Technical details of the project are expected to be finalised this year, with construction due to begin by 2027.
Syria Nears Banking Deal with Turkey, Eyes Currency Swap
Syria is in the final stages of opening a correspondent bank account with Turkey's central bank and will also discuss a possible currency swap to boost bilateral trade, Reuters reported, citing Syria's central bank governor. A correspondent bank account would help facilitate cross-border payments and trade finance, which traders say are currently conducted only in cash and through traditional money transfer offices.
"Cooperation with Turkey, particularly between the Central Bank of Syria and Turkish authorities, is accelerating and becoming increasingly institutionalised," central bank governor Abdelkader al-Husrieh said during a two-day working visit to Turkey. He also said Turkish state lender Ziraat Bank and smaller private lender Aktif Bank were expected to begin operations in Syria in the near term.
Turkey, Italy discuss missile defense cooperation
Turkey is in talks with Italy about the possible purchase and co-production of European-made missile defence systems, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
Ankara has for years sought SAMP/T missile batteries made by the French-Italian consortium Eurosam GIE to strengthen its air defenses, but France had previously blocked those requests. The sources said Turkish negotiators now believe Paris may be more open to approving a deal.
Separately, on April 7, President Erdogan inaugurated the first phase of a planned $3 billion production facility run by state missile maker Roketsan Roket Sanayi ve Ticaret. The plant, located near Ankara, is expected to increase the output of domestically developed missile defence systems and ballistic missiles, including Turkey's flagship missile, Tayfun, in the coming years.
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